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Today the ECB will have a press conference following the min bid rate. Here are the key talking points in my view -
Overall, this can be a bearish event. As typical in the past, Draghi will likely resort to jawboning and citing troubles in China and other events to justify current market conditions. The net effect can be a moderately bearish Euro.
What will really move the EUR will be any introduction of new QE plans, or any action that is taken at this meeting. As the general expectation is for verbal intervention and for Draghi to stand behind the ECB showing support.
- The Euro has appreciated significantly in recent times. Predominately in the cross rates. This will most likely be the focus of meeting, Draghi is expected to comment on this. Most likely, he will maintain a dovish tone and say something to the effect that the ECB is ready to take any further measures if necessary. It's not likely he takes action, rather some verbal intervention. In the event action is taken, this would be very bearish for the EURO.
- Inflation has been slowly ticking up, however low oil prices are preventing the growth in inflation to occur at the pace expected. The forecasts for inflation for the next 1-2 years may be slightly revised down to accommodate this. Essentially indicating it may take even longer for the eurozone to reach target levels. Again, a bearish point.
- QE - Draghi will likely acknowledge the current path of QE and their intentions to stick with the plan.
Overall, this can be a bearish event. As typical in the past, Draghi will likely resort to jawboning and citing troubles in China and other events to justify current market conditions. The net effect can be a moderately bearish Euro.
What will really move the EUR will be any introduction of new QE plans, or any action that is taken at this meeting. As the general expectation is for verbal intervention and for Draghi to stand behind the ECB showing support.
