If one would be asked to single out the most important endogenous event that might define currency exchange rates for month to come one would answer unequivocally – interest rate decision by the central bank. The forthcoming rate decision by Reserve Bank of Australia is not an exclusion, even when the majority of market participants do not anticipate any changes to the current level of interest rates.


What has left to be dissected by market observers is the rhetoric, emanating from RBA`s officials. In current market conditions this verbal stance is quite predictable too – the exchange rate of Australian dollar against USD is too high and not sustainable at this level, while low levels of inflation in consumer prices gives the central bank enough degrees of freedom to use unconventional tools to bring exchange rate to “the most conducive for economic growth” value. In other words – the central bank will not tolerate significant increase of the national currency.


The result of such “jaw boning” is quite predictable too – AUD might enter a new leg of downtrend that might stay around for weeks to come.
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