A break below the 1.2958 lows would be required as confirmation before calling an extension of the bear trend.A proviso to the bearish forecast is the lack of downwards momentum during the most recent period of activity which is a warning sign that the downtrend could be coming to an end.Whilst the exchange rate has been making new lows during June and July the RSI momentum indicator in the bottom pane has not been similarly making new lows as would be the case if momentum was strong. This convergence between RSI and price is sometimes a bullish sign.A break above the 1.3215 highs would probably be a sign of the start of a more bullish phase and a reversal of the short-term downtrend, suggesting higher prices on the horizon.
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