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3 Potential Election Outcomes
Scenario #1: Trump becomes President, Clinton accepts defeat.
The greatest market impact would be a Trump victory and a willing Clinton defeat. In this scenario, the U.S. will have a man with untested political skills and unknown policies in office. In this case, the biggest winners will be the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen while the biggest losers would be the U.S. dollar and Mexican peso. The Canadian dollar should also fall but its moves could be tempered by a weakening U.S. dollar.
Scenario #2: Clinton becomes President, Trump accepts defeat
The greatest relief for foreign investors would be if Clinton becomes President and Trump willingly accepts defeat. She’s not without her own problems (and there are many) but the transparency of her policies and the continuity of stability would send the U.S. dollar sharply higher. In this scenario, the dollar and peso would rise against all of the major currencies with the biggest losers being the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and to some degree the euro. However she would need to win by an uncontestably wide margin and Trump would need to accept defeat, which he has suggested he will not do.
Scenario #3: Trump/Clinton becomes President by narrow margin. Loser refuses to accept defeat.
The third scenario is the most likely. If Trump or Clinton becomes president by a very narrow margin and the loser refuses to accept defeat, the ongoing uncertainty would be extremely negative for the U.S. dollar, especially in the hours after the election. On a percentage basis, the greatest market volatility in financial assets (currencies, equities and commodities) will be in scenarios 1 and 2
The US Dollar Bleeds Blue
The world’s reserve currency has also shown a preference for Democratic presidents, at least over the last couple of decades. Dating back to President George H.W. Bush in 1988, the US dollar index has tended to fall during Republican presidencies and rise under Democrats, including over the last eight years under Obama:
Good Luck....!!!!
Scenario #1: Trump becomes President, Clinton accepts defeat.
The greatest market impact would be a Trump victory and a willing Clinton defeat. In this scenario, the U.S. will have a man with untested political skills and unknown policies in office. In this case, the biggest winners will be the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen while the biggest losers would be the U.S. dollar and Mexican peso. The Canadian dollar should also fall but its moves could be tempered by a weakening U.S. dollar.
Scenario #2: Clinton becomes President, Trump accepts defeat
The greatest relief for foreign investors would be if Clinton becomes President and Trump willingly accepts defeat. She’s not without her own problems (and there are many) but the transparency of her policies and the continuity of stability would send the U.S. dollar sharply higher. In this scenario, the dollar and peso would rise against all of the major currencies with the biggest losers being the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and to some degree the euro. However she would need to win by an uncontestably wide margin and Trump would need to accept defeat, which he has suggested he will not do.
Scenario #3: Trump/Clinton becomes President by narrow margin. Loser refuses to accept defeat.
The third scenario is the most likely. If Trump or Clinton becomes president by a very narrow margin and the loser refuses to accept defeat, the ongoing uncertainty would be extremely negative for the U.S. dollar, especially in the hours after the election. On a percentage basis, the greatest market volatility in financial assets (currencies, equities and commodities) will be in scenarios 1 and 2
The US Dollar Bleeds Blue
The world’s reserve currency has also shown a preference for Democratic presidents, at least over the last couple of decades. Dating back to President George H.W. Bush in 1988, the US dollar index has tended to fall during Republican presidencies and rise under Democrats, including over the last eight years under Obama:
Good Luck....!!!!
