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USD/JPY to start 2018 on the back foot

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.75, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction that followe…
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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 10: USD/JPY dropped like a rock as Bank of Japan bought slightly less JGBs than in previous open market operation. Selling already began yesterday though as the pair rejected prices above 113.30. 112 - 112.25 is the support area to watch.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 11: U.S. government failed to pass funding bill and went into shutdown. This will probably last a couple of weeks, the question is what it means for the U.S. dollar. A small gap lower is possible, but with ECB and BOJ meetings next week, a correction rather than continuation of the dollar weakness may be in the cards.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 12: BOJ kept the monetary policy unchanged at this meeting. The bank admitted that inflation is (slowly) rising towards the target of 2.0% and bumped up inflation expectations outlook in quarterly report. USD/JPY dropped about 30 pips but has since recovered. 110 - 110.25 is the area to watch on the downside and 111.50 on the upside.

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al_dcdemo 1 Feb.

UPDATE 13: FOMC left federal funds rate in 1.25% - 1.50% range, as expected. The statement was seen as slightly more hawkish than expected. March hike appears to be a done deal with some quarters now expecting as many as four rate hikes this year. U.S. dollar looks supported but will it last?

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Yen to move closer to 110

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 110.50, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction that followe…
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al_dcdemo 19 Dec.

UPDATE 5: After a 50-pip range yesterday, USD/JPY mustered only 15 pips so far today. Maybe U.S. traders can provide some volatility for this pair. The BOJ meets on Thursday and is expected to keep the policy steady. Traders will be on a lookout for any hawkish hints.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/JPY to test 115 in November

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 114.25, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction, that follow…
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al_dcdemo 7 Nov.

UPDATE 5: The pair rallied about 50 pips in the opening hours, on the back of dovish comments by BOJ governor Kuroda, but then gave back twice as much by the end of the day.

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al_dcdemo 11 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar recorded a losing week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate said to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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USD/JPY to stay supported in October

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 113.25, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returne…
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Translate to English Show original

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al_dcdemo 20 Oct.

UPDATE 6: During a bout of risk-off yesterday, USD/JPY fell on news that Spain's cabinet will suspend Catalan autonomy on Saturday, but there was no follow through. The pair recouped all losses and surged to a new weekly high overnight as U.S. senate approved budget plan that moves them closer to tax reform. The pair is currently trading just above 113. The initial resistance is at 113.40 where the declining 2017 trendline coincides with last week's high. If that gives way, 114 will come into focus. 112.75 - 113 should hold while bulls are in control.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 24 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Japanese voters supported current PM Abe on the weekend. That means at least a couple more years of Abenomics, even though BOJ governor Kuroda may not be selected for the second term next year. Stocks liked this and yen was sold. At least initially. USD/JPY gapped 30 pips at the open and extended that by about 25 pips but it was backing a filling from there. A late round of risk aversion took the pair down to the 113.25 support, from where it bounced. 114 is the the first stronger resistance.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the Japanese yen.

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al_dcdemo 1 Nov.

UPDATE 10: USD/JPY remains fundamentally supported on both sides of equation. Progress on U.S. tax reform means prospects for more Fed hikes and wider interest rate spread. Japanese PM Abe's recent election victory means more Abenomics. After seven consecutive green weeks, Nikkei is trading at 20-year highs. The pair started the week by falling below the 2017 resistance line, but is already back above the level. 114 is the immediate resistance before last week's high near 114.5. After that, 115 - 116 is the major resistance area to watch. 113.25 - 113.5 looks like a strong support.

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USD/JPY to break lower in September

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 107.75, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so called Trump trade. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returne…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

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9 Comments
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al_dcdemo 9 Sep.

UPDATE 5: Three major central banks met this week. On Tuesday, RBA kept interest rates unchanged but they were upbeat on the economy. On Wednesday, BOC delivered second hawkish hike in the row. Markets expect one more hike from them this year. ECB stood pat on Thursday but will likely announce further tapering of asset purchases in October. Next week, SNB and BOE meet. No change is likely to be expected from SNB while the franc is trading below 1.20 against the euro. BOE will hike rates at some point in the future but that won't be this year.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 6: It was a positive week for the dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely too.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Yesterday, North Korean foreign minister said that they understood Trump's comments over the weekend as a declaration of war. White House later said that they have not declared war on North Korea. Yen was bought on the news and USD/JPY fell some 50 pips. The pair stalled ahead of 111.50 level, which is the immediate support. Pre-FOMC low near 111 and the big figure itself is the next area to watch. 112.30 - 112.70 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in treasury bond yields after more hawkish than expected Fed last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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