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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6228, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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Range-bound Moves Persist in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4538, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Range Box #Swedish Krona
The smaller range-bound moves persist in the EUR/SEK. The pair opened March around the 9.55 handle and is currently trading at 9.4533, a percentage change of just over 1 percent. The chart also demonstrate a classic V-shaped reversal pattern.
Our second chart below also shows this V-shaped pattern but on much bigger timescale, the weekly chart. Here too we're seeing the EUR/SEK range-bound behavior.
This currency pair keeps being brought back to the 9.50 area, no matter how much it tries to stra…
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Swedish Krona Stays Flat in July

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5537, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #4H Chart #Euro #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona stayed mostly flat during July. The pair opened the month at 9.62 and closed it at 9.55. In percentage terms this is only 0.73%.
The chart above shows that this range narrowed further during the second part of the month. During this time-period the EUR/SEK moved between a low of 9.50 and a high of 9.62. But most of the time was spend in the middle of this range doing nothing.
On the longterm weekly chart above we see that the current smaller 4h range in right in the middle. In …
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Multiple Studies Says EUR/SEK to Stay Near Longterm Average

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.7704, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Sweden #200 Sma #Moving Average #EUR/SEK #Fibonacci Level #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #2008 Crisis
This is one of those pictures that's worth a thousand words. The chart below shows mutiple studies confirming my view that the EUR/SEK will stay near its long-term average. First we have the 200 month moving average in blue. It's currently at 9.277, only 5 percent away from the current market price. This means that the current price is just a few days worth of trading away from its average during the past 16 years.
If that doesn't show you the state of this currency pair, there's more! Notice th…
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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6445, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5567, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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Swedish Krona Mean Reverts Against Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5765, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #V Shaped Reversal
The Swedish Krona mean-reverted against the Euro yet again. This wont come as a surprise to the readers of my TA posts, because I've written about the range-bound nature of this pair for the past few months. In the process of reversing the pair fell back below the 9.73 handle, a key resistance level that kept a lid on prices.
On our next chart we can see just how important this level has been. It remained unbroken for the past few years, holding the EUR/SEK in a tight range. Things are not looki…
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False Breakout for the Swedish Krona

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.7714, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Support #Resistance #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona #Reversion
The Euro rallied strongly against the Swedish Krona at the end of October. It even broke above the long-term resistance near 9.7300. But as can be seen on the chart below, all those gains evaporated in a span of few weeks. We are now quoted at 9.7713, only 0.41% away from the 9.7300 breakout point.
The strong rejection of the upside move and the near-complete retracement to the breakout point suggests that the rally in this pair is over. As we can see on the chart below, all previous breakouts, …
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Gains for EUR/SEK WIll Not Last

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.9145, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Resistance #Breakout #Sweden #Range #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK finally managed to break above a two-year resistance line at 9.7256. But I don't think these gains will last and here's why. We're now quoted at 9.9140, only 1.9 percent away from the resistance. This is a fairly small amount.
But more important, this type of breakouts have happened many times in the past few years and it always ended in tears for the bears. Take a look at the chart below. We mark several bullish breakouts and they all ended with prices reverting deep towards the mea…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 28 Nov.

So far the general theme of my forecast has been correct. The EUR/SEK is currently quoted at 9.7746, well below the highs reached back in October.

As recent history shows (see the second chart above) breakouts in this pair tend to fail. After hitting a high of 10.0808 on US election day, it has been down ever since for the EUR/SEK.

Few days ago we hit a low of 9.7409 and we're now trading at 9.7746, about 1.4% away from my forecasted price. Let's hope that mean-reversion kicks in again, this time pushing prices higher from oversold territory.

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Overhead Resistance Continues to Keep a Lid on Prices

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6310, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Resistance #Bullish #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona #Lid
The overhead resistance in the EUR/SEK continues to keep a lid on prices. On the chart below we can see a general area between 9.600 and 9.7200. Notice the many spikes near this area in the past. This signals strong selling pressure.
We are currently quoted at 9.6252, so we're right inside this resistance area. This means that any price gains should be minimal. In September we traded to a high of 9.6654 but the pair again met heavy selling to bring it down to current levels around 9.62-9.63 Euro…
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