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Kiwi to gain some more in August

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Golden Cross #Strong Rally #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair just broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 …
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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

Thanks a lot :)

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currency pairs sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There's been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of this week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what the ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after exceptional GDP figure. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. jobs & wages report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Loonie approaching the top of the channel

al_dcdemo Posted 5 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Strong Rally #D1 Chart #Boc Governor Poloz #Weakening Momentum
USD/CAD is continuing its upward march though the momentum has been weakening. BOC governor Poloz spoke yesterday, highlighting challenges that the economy faces: continuing shortfall in exports, slack in the economy and labour market, and uncertainty around the U.S. and protectionism.
The pair recorded ten consecutive up days and 14 out of 16 since April 13th. It is approaching the top of the 2016 - 2017 trading channel which coincides with 61.8% retracement of the 2016 downswing. The first str…
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USD/CHF to surge above parity level once again

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0025, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Strong Rally #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of the European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 8 June

UPDATE 5: Swissie has been one of the big movers in the past few days. There were no particular drivers cited but U.S. dollar weakness after Friday's NFP report and flight to safety in the run up to UK EU referendum are certainly two of them. The pair lost 250 pips in three days and more than 300 from the top, set in May near 0.9950. It is back below the three daily moving averages and is currently testing 2011 - 2016 trendline with 100 WMA (0.9625) just below. 50 DMA is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY.  Commodity currencies continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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EURUSD

ImranMughal99 Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.12, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Rsi #Strong Rally #Horizontal
Charts: 4HOUR,

The EUR/USD has corrected sharply after trading inside its horizontal as visible in this daily chart (H4).
This currency pair is now trading inside its horizontal support level
which is marked in blue in the above chart. We expect the EUR/USD to
rally higher and back into its horizontal resistance zone which is
marked in red.
Indicators: MACD RSI
MACD indicates that momentum is improving, but it remains in bearish
territory. We expect the histogram as well as moving average to ap…
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USD/CAD to pull back before continuation higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3925, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Confluence #New High #Uptrend #Pullback #Strong Rally #Major Levels #Upside Potential
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend, touching 1.40 level in December.
Weekly chart
Since revisiting 1.20 level …
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Loonie appears to have been the quietest of the bunch as its overnight range was barely more than 30 pips.

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al_dcdemo 12 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Loonie continues to trend up strongly and has broken to a new high in five out of six completed trading days this year. Yesterday, it reversed from the dip and proceeded to break July 2003 high, making it to the highs not seen for thirteen years. 76.4% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline is the next target, reinforced by the big figure level at 1.45 and backed by the March 2003 low (~1.4580). Pullbacks have been shallow but, in case of a deeper correction, area around 1.35 (September 2015 high) may be the first candidate for support.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Contrary to what many expected, BOC held the overnight rate at 0.50%. Canadian dollar weakened a lot in anticipation of their move and was bought heavily after the decision. The pair (USD/CAD) was marked down immediately but it turned around swiftly and retested pre-meeting range in anticipation of a dovish press conference. That never came and the pair continued lower, leaving a big reversal candle on the daily chart.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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Upside in USD/CAD appears more likely

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2720, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Boc #Bullish #Uptrend #Loonie #Overbought #Descending Triangle #Strong Rally #Strong Selling
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. I'd say the retracement has been properly broken as the pair posted second monthly close above that level in March. February 2009 high (1.3064) now comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end …
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: Friday's NFP move appears to be a bit overdone and a pullback to 1.2500 - 1.2550 appears likely, before potential follow through move lower. The direction will also strongly depend on Canadian Ivey PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which will be released on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Range support at 1.2350 is the first strong level to watch.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: Canadian Dollar defied US Dollar strength in the first part of the week, but after huge build-up was shown in Crude Oil Inventories report on Wednesday, the pair reversed sharply. FOMC Minutes, released few hours later, didn't help it. It added another cent on Thursday and early Friday, but another reversal came after much better than expected Canadian Employment Change (though the details were not as strong).

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Focus in the week ahead will be on the BOC meeting on Wednesday. Even though no change is expected in Overnight Rate, the market may be expecting dovish Rate Statement or at least some downside revisions in the Monetary Policy Report. If that doesn't happen and oil continues to consolidate, there's risk that the pair breaks three-month range bottom at 1.2350. Most likely scenario is, however, that the pair remains range-bound.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The pair was the star performer among majors this week (pip and percentage-wise) and also had the greatest weekly trading range. The break of the 3-month range came on Wednesday after the combination of almost hawkish BOC and recovering price of oil sent the pair down to 1.2280. The downtrend continued on Thursday and into Friday, but the pair then recovered by almost 200 pips in a broader USD pullback.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Along with two speeches from Poloz and a couple of US data releases, there's not much on the calendar that may move the pair in the week ahead. Focus will likely be on technicals and flows as longer-term bulls will begin to scale into their long positions and shorter-term bears will be adding to their shorts. Most probable scenario is a retest of the broken range bottom (1.2350) from below and then continuation lower.

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USD/CAD will retrace a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2167, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Boc #Fed #Uptrend #Loonie #Overbought #Descending Triangle #Strong Rally
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. If it convincingly breaks the retracement then February 2009 high (1.3064) comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is now acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end of 2014, the pair added further 1100 pips in January 2015 alone. Tech…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: Action in the pair is still range bound (on the daily chart) and is not yet clear which way the descending triangle will break, but most likely it will be the topside. January 30 high would then provide further resistance before 1.3000 - 1.3050. On the downside, strong support between 1.2350 - 1.2400 dominates.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: Last Friday's breakout from descending triangle proved to be real one as the pair continued to trade higher. There was quite substantial pullback on Thursday, but it was quickly soaked up. On Friday, the pair managed to break above January 30 high (1.2799), but then closed just below it. Despite this, technical picture remains bullish.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair closely resembled that in other major pairs, which is not surprising at all, since the whole week unfolded around single main event - FOMC meeting. Small range in the beginning of the week, nearly 400 pip spike lower on Wednesday and then retest of pre-announcement range, which was followed with a broad USD sell-off on Friday. The pair closed just below 50 DMA but above descending triangle "roof" , which was broken last week. If the two levels give way, proven weekly resistance at 1.2350 may be tested next.

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USD/CAD goes parabolic

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3092, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Boc #Uptrend #Loonie #Overbought #Strong Rally #Strong Fundamentals #Smooth Deceleration
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011 and, having broken 200 month SMA in January 2015, it is currently capped by 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. If that gives way then February 2009 high (1.3064) comes into focus before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA should now act as a support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end of 2014, the pair has added further 1100 pips in January 2015 alone.…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

After oil continued the rebound that was commenced last Friday, the pair finally got some respite and sold down to 1.2350. From there it bounced and started to form what appears to be a descending triangle. If it breaks and holds below 1.2300 - 1.2350, the first stronger demand may not come in until closer to 1.20, provided that the oil also continues the correction.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

It looked like oil (WTI) is resuming its downtrend, but it was unable to fall below 48 and it then reversed higher in the second part of the week. The pair closely mirrored the action in the oil. After fake-out higher on Tuesday and Wednesday it then sold off and ended the week in the lower part of the recent range. Currently, it depends mainly on the oil where the pair will go next, but it will need to break either 1.2350 or 1.27 to provide clues about further direction.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

Since oil started its extended fall, Loonie has been one of the most volatile major pairs. Its weekly range was 200 pips this week which is even more on percentage basis, compared to other major pairs. However, it was unable to make any progress outside of current consolidation (descending triangle) on the daily chart. Whichever way it will break out of this formation, will likely determine further direction. If oil prices will continue to stabilize in the days/weeks ahead, that direction will most likely be down.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Feb.

This one is a bit off for now, but it's going in the right direction. We still have a couple interesting days ahead, so might get much closer. Great analysis!

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al_dcdemo 24 Feb.

I expected slow grinding into 1.30, similar to USD/JPY rally in November 2014 - December 2014, but this pair is different and linked to oil. Thanks!

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