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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/PLN, 予想レート: 4.1787, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/TRY, 予想レート: 3.9712, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年04月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/SEK, 予想レート: 9.6445, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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Both Timeframes Agree in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年04月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/TRY, 予想レート: 3.8754, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Range Top #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.
The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.
This underscore just how range-bound the EUR/TRY has become lately. But this is not a new phenomenon. See the chart above and you can notice the same zig-zag price action on the…
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Five-years-long Range Still in Play

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/PLN, 予想レート: 4.2318, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2303. That's just above 4.7 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
In addition to this the chart clearly shows that the price remains inside the bounds of this range, with a high at 4.5961 and a low at 3.9661.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks somewhat simil…
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fxsurprise8 2017年04月30日

The EUR/PLN opened April at 4.2164. From here the currency pair rallied to a high of 4.2834, only to fall to a low of 4.2112 few days later.

We are currently quoted at 4.2225, only 93 pips away from my forecasted price, or <0.20% in percentage terms. With a bit of luck, I could get a good prize in this month's contest!

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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.0654, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/SEK, 予想レート: 9.5588, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Single Currency
The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月29日

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月30日

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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More of the Same for EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.8541, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Moving Average #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency
I expect more of the same in the EUR/GBP currency pair. In the past year Cable lost a lot of ground against the Euro, mainly due to Brexit. But as markets discount the event entirely, the pair has stabilized somewhat.
Look at the daily chart above. After an initial bump to 0.9300 in October, prices fell back to the 0.8500 range, where we've been trading since around August of 2016. The blue line on the chart above is the 100-day moving average.
Notice how price started to hug since November 2016…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月29日

UPDATE 2:Time for a second update. Since my previous post the EUR/GBP traded in a very large range of 117 pips. This is a lot for two days of trading in this particular currency pair.

During this time a high of 0.8734 was hit, as well as a low of 0.8617. Nonetheless, ultimately the pair closed today at 0.8656, only 8 pips above the price noted in the update above.

With my target at 0.8541 I will need some Pound strength in the last few days of the contest to bring me closed to my target. Hopefully the official beginning of Brexit will provide some market clarity and allow for some GBP gains.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月30日

UPDATE 3: The EUR/GBP is now quoted at 0.8565, only 21 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8541.

Today we saw large losses in the Euro across the board and this translated into this pair as well. We opened the day at 0.8656 and steadily fell with only 1 green bar since the Europe open.

Eventually we closed the day near the current market price of 0.8565. Now a top position for my forecast looks doable as the pair is back to its range-bound movement. Wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 4: Not good news to report in this update! The pair overshoot my target as the GBP strength continues across the board.

We are now quoted at 0.8492, exactly 49 pips away from my forecasted price at 0.8541. Still I have hope that we'll see the pair head back soon.

We've had 3 large red candles in this pair so far, this is unusual in a mean-reverting pair like the EUR/GBP. With only half a trading day left of the contest (on Monday) anything is possible!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 5: Time for another update and this time I have a chart! Let's take a look at how this month played out so far.

We opened at 0.8533 (shown by vertical line in the picture above. From here we rallied all the way to a high of 0.8786. This was followed by heavy selling that brought us back down to Earth.

This is typical behavior for mean-reverting pairs like the EUR/GBP. We closed on Friday at 0.8485, only 56 pips below my forecasted price!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 6: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

In the EUR/GBP we gapped open at 0.8469 and continued to slowly drift up to a high of 0.8508. We are currently quoted just slightly below these highs at 0.8505.

This is only 36 pips away from my forecasted price, meaning I have a real shot at a good prize position this month.

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Losses End for the Euro

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.0597, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Euro #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Zig Zag Pattern #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency
The losses for the Euro have come to an end. Exhibit A, look at the daily chart below. For the past three months, we've been range-bound in this currency pair.
Things don't look better if we drill down to the 4 Hour chart. Notice the directionless zig-zag movement here. First down, then up, the down again and recently up again. This indicates that there's no clear trend on the lower time-frames.
With both the long-term and the short-term charts signalling range, I'm betting on prices staying nea…
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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 1: Time for a chart update! The pair followed the expected scenario of mean reversion this month. Initially we rallied all the way to a high of 1.0906.

But these gains were soon erased as you can see on the chart above. We closed on Friday at 1.0652, only 80 pips above the monthly open.

This is only 65 pips away from my forecasted price. Hopefully the downward drift continues for another half day on Monday to bring me even closer!

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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/JPY, 予想レート: 118.73, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月03日

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月03日

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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