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EUR/USD to the lowest this year

al_dcdemo Posted 8 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #EUR/USD #D1 Chart #Shallow Pullbacks #Consensus Trade
Long EUR/USD was cited as one of the consensus trades for 2018. It seems that there was too much consensus. We saw another round of U.S. dollar buying today. EUR/USD recorded a new low for the year before finding some support ahead of 1.18. On a quick glance the pair appears oversold but shallow pullbacks suggest that sellers are not done yet.
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USD/CAD downtrend to continue

al_dcdemo Posted 28 July as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2275, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Strong Downtrend #Shallow Pullbacks #Hawkish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping channel. 1.28 - 1.30 has been central to t…
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al_dcdemo 19 Aug.

UPDATE 6: This week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that Draghi will avoid talking monetary policy. That should increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currency pairs sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There's been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after exceptional GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. jobs & wages report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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