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AUD/USD to keep pushing the upside

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7775, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Gains #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke above the confluence of the 2015 support-resistance line, broken long-term trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows and…
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al_dcdemo 6 May

UPDATE 5: The impact of the U.S. jobs and wages report for April was rather small this time around. This could be to some extent due to lower participation in this holiday-heavy week but I think the main reason is that U.S. data doesn't seem to play the biggest role in the Fed's policy at the moment. Due to status of the U.S dollar as the number one reserve currency in the world, the Fed is in many ways a global central bank and must act accordingly. The bank is in no hurry with rate hikes and I think they'll stay sidelined at least until September.

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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a hefty part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. Loonie, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance near 1.30. Cable on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were decent for a Monday however and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 9: Aussie jumped about 60 pips overnight, after the release of much better than expected Building Approvals report. This kind of impact is rare for such an event but the market has been waiting for an excuse to start buying into the pair in what seems to be an oversold condition. The buying stalled just ahead of 200 DMA (0.7250) which remains an immediate resistance. Above that comes 2015 support/resistance line (0.7275) and then 100 DMA (0.7350). 0.7150 - 0.7200 may now hold as a support.

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AUD/USD to extend gains in April

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7625, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive #Pullback Mode
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke above the confluence of the 2015 support-resistance line, broken long-term trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows an…
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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 7: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as most commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be the recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and multiple central bank speakers.

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al_dcdemo 27 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Aussie tumbled overnight after much weaker than expected quarterly inflation report which, among other things, showed Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) falling below RBA's target band of 2.0% - 3.0%. Expectations for a rate cut by the bank next week surged. The pair lost 150+ pips since the release and seems to be making a short-term bottom ahead of 23.6% retracement of the January - April rally. 50 DMA is the next stronger support level and then 0.7450 - 0.75 band. 0.7650 - 0.77 likely becomes a sell zone now.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: I was expecting a dip towards 0.7250 during the forecast period but 0.75 held as traders continued to pile into the Australian dollar amid the recovery in commodities and the U.S. dollar weakness. I was right, however, on the pair testing 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downswing. The big level held and the pair fell to close the month 20.2 pips away from my target at 0.7625.

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AUD/USD to set the stage for a break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Falling Momentum #Seven Year Low #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The momentum of the current downswing is clearly decelerating with the pair stabilizing around 0.70 level and 0.6750 proving to be a solid support. …
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al_dcdemo 16 Mar.

UPDATE 5: Aussie rallied almost 800 pips from the seven-year low, set in January near 0.6825. Last swing was particularly strong and after a proper stop-run above 0.75 level, the pair is finally finding some sellers. It is possible that the pair will see some backing and filling in the days ahead. There's plenty of support levels for the bulls to lean against with 0.72 - 0.725 a potential bull/bear line in sand.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Aussie so far gained about a cent and a half. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both are to remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in these conditions.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: After weaker than expected spending data from the U.S., the dollar sold off across the board. The moves were made on lower than usual liquidity but we won't need to wait too long to see if there will be any follow through. 0.75 level in Aussie held overnight and most of the day's gains were recorded in the European session. Rally after the aforementioned data was quickly sold into. The pair will need to break and hold above 0.7575 - 0.80 to make bulls happy.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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