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AUD/USD to set the stage for a break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Falling Momentum #Seven Year Low #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The momentum of the current downswing is clearly decelerating with the pair stabilizing around 0.70 level and 0.6750 proving to be a solid support. …
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al_dcdemo 16 Mar.

UPDATE 5: Aussie rallied almost 800 pips from the seven-year low, set in January near 0.6825. Last swing was particularly strong and after a proper stop-run above 0.75 level, the pair is finally finding some sellers. It is possible that the pair will see some backing and filling in the days ahead. There's plenty of support levels for the bulls to lean against with 0.72 - 0.725 a potential bull/bear line in sand.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Aussie so far gained about a cent and a half. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both are to remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in these conditions.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: After weaker than expected spending data from the U.S., the dollar sold off across the board. The moves were made on lower than usual liquidity but we won't need to wait too long to see if there will be any follow through. 0.75 level in Aussie held overnight and most of the day's gains were recorded in the European session. Rally after the aforementioned data was quickly sold into. The pair will need to break and hold above 0.7575 - 0.80 to make bulls happy.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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AUD/USD to move broadly sideways in February

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7075, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Risk Sentiment #Net Short Positioning #Falling Momentum #Seven Year Low
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The momentum of the current downswing is clearly decelerating as the pair is stabilizing around 0.70 level with 0.6750 proving to be a solid support…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
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al_dcdemo 19 Feb.

UPDATE 6: Aussie is finding resistance ahead of 0.72 - 0.725 really difficult to overcome. Weaker than expected labour force report didn't do it much harm as it was essentially an expected pullback after exceptional Q4. 50 DMA is the level to watch on the downside before 0.70. Aforementioned 0.72 - 0.725 resistance band is reinforced by the September - December trendline and 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Following some stabilization in world stock and commodity markets and overall improvement in risk sentiment, volatility in major currency pairs fell. The pairs mostly end the week not very far (~100 pips) from their opening levels but the ranges are still decent (100 - 300 pips). Whether is this just a temporary calm remains to be seen as global macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 8: Australian Private Capital Expenditure (capex) report was just released and it came out better than expected. Aussie surprisingly fell after the release, which may be a sign that a deeper pullback is in the making. 0.7250 (broken September - December trendline, 200 DMA) remains a formidable resistance. 100 DMA (~0.7150) is the immediate support ahead of 50 DMA (~0.71) and 0.70 big figure level.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Aussie lost good 100 pips on the day with the daily range worth about 140 pips. It posted outside down day which suggests more losses in the days ahead.

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al_dcdemo 29 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Even though the pair failed at 0.7250 three times in February and posted an outside down day on Friday, technical picture doesn't look bad at all and there's plenty of levels where demand may start coming in, should the pullback continue. 50 DMA just below 0.71 is the immediate support ahead of 0.7050 but the real test will come at 0.70. Staying above is bullish while a drop below would imply a retest of January lows and possibly 0.6750.

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