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EURo to test the upside in September

al_dcdemo Posted 20 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1375, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Rebound #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Reluctant Fed
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above the long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 low…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in all G7 major currency pairs. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. This outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the Q4.

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EURo starts to flex its muscle

dragon1 Posted 16 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Support #Uptrend #Rebound
Euro has been sickish for a while, unable to break through the top downward correction line. However, the trend looks unmistakably upward. I gingerly took a long Euro position last night, just in case that it suddenly shot up and I might be deep in sleep.
Well, it proved a test of endurance for me. I kept envisioning the volatile shake when today's FOMC announcement comes. And I imagined Euro to briefly dip, scaring off the weak hands, then violently shoot up -- I have always been an optimist!
A…
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dragon1 16 Mar.

yes, it shoots, soon to a new high!

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EURo shows sign of life

dragon1 Posted 15 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Uptrend #Rebound
Euro so far had been pulling back in a steady way, following a conventional ABCD pattern.Currently, it has managed to rebound from a support. Ever since more than 10 hours ago, it has been steadily climbing up. A pike test down 2 hours ago added some fuel to the little rally.
GBP is not as bullish. However, it has also rebounded a little from a support. It is hopeful that it may show some sign in time to confirm its rebound. Currently it remains uncertain as to whether it would continue falling.
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dragon1 15 Mar.

OOPS, both continues to fall, as I dreaded. My account was margin called. Ahh, time to rest. See you next month!

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Time to take a short bet on yen

dragon1 Posted 9 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Long #Rebound
After hitting a low of 112.25 last night, USD/JPY managed to rebound before reaching the support of 112.15. As we can see from the hourly chart, it has already broken the correction trend line, making a higher high. I think it is a reasonable bet on a long position. Note that shortly before, it had a inverted head and shoulder pattern ABC. This provides some support as well. So, friends, be brave, be greedy, no pain no no gain. You just have to take the plunge! Follow me!
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dragon1 9 Mar.

my position hit a stop loss :-(. Now it flies!

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dragon1 9 Mar.

correction: without reaching the support of 112.15

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A small rebound in the sight

marius24 Posted 31 July as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 92.1200, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Triangle #Double Top #Rebound
Currency Pair:Aud/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 90.56
Trend: downtrend
Possible trading range:89-94
Signals:On the weekly chart the price is hovering right now in a massive triangle having managed a breakout to the downside from a big ascending channel.
Forecast:On the daily chart the presence of two double tops maintain the downward pressure on this pair, but i still expect a small rebound in the month ahead. The fundamentals still favour a weak…
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marius24 10 Aug.

update: so far the support 89.34 proved to be a hard nut  to crack and therefore the price rebounded towards the 92 level. In the same time on the daily chart a double bottom is on the brink of completion in case the bulls push the rate above 89.34. The outlook remains bullish

marius24 avatar
marius24 19 Aug.

update: So far the bulls haven't been capable to keep the price above 92.40 handle in order to push the spot even higher. The lack of support there attracted the bears who immediately dragged down the rate in the 91 area. Anyway there is still a chance left for the bulls in case the tripple top is finished (4 hour chart). Current price - 91.35

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USD/CAD to extend gains in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3175, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Boc #Rally #Confluence #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Rebound #Strong Demand
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear the stops below 1.20 level. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed its uptrend.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 range support at 1.2375 gave…
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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Inflation, retail sales and wholesale sales reports are the main Canadian data points in the week ahead. US will report its monthly inflation figures too. Despite all that, the main driver remains the oil and if it convincingly breaks to the downside, the pair will mostly likely follow suit by rising above the cycle-high set on August 5th. Demand shall start coming in at 1.3060 and into 1.30.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: When the oil fell to new six-year lows on Monday, the pair was quick to post new six-year highs. The oil was consolidating on Tuesday and Wednesday and so was the pair. However, when the oil rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday, the pair failed to follow suit. The reason for this may lay in the current risk-off environment and the fact that the pair didn't sell off as strongly as other commodity currencies.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Canada will release GDP, Trade Balance and jobs reports in the week ahead. Along with ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports from the US I think there's enough on the calendar to spark some volatility. However, the main story will be the oil. If it continues to rally in absence of turmoil in global stocks, the pair may well try to catch up by selling off.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Oil staged an impressive intraday turnaround in which it rose to 49.30 from 43.60 in under five hours. That was the third consecutive day of gains and the fifth day of a massive short squeeze that started on August 25th. Loonie finally took notice and followed it lower - more than two cents from the high of the day. The first strong support zone is seen between 1.30 big figure level and 2009 high (1.3064).

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: After more than five and a half dollar rally, the oil stabilized today and so did the Loonie. The pair retested yesterday's low (~1.3115) in the Asian session and then rallied a good cent from there before it pulled back. It is currently trading near 1.32, just above my target level of 1.3175. I'm happy with the prediction, not only due to it ending near the target but also because the pair behaved in a similar way that I expected it to.

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USD/CAD will continue to consolidate

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2575, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Consolidation #Correction #Symmetrical Triangle #Uptrend #Pivot #Rebound #Strong Demand
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear the stops below 1.20 level. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement shall offer further support ahead of 20 month SMA, should the pair continue to correct lower.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 r…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 4: After opening the week some 50 pips above Friday's closing levels, the pair went on to rally and managed to break above the range that contained it in the second part of the previous week. It briefly traded above last Tuesday's high (~1.2780) but the resistance in 1.2800 - 1.2835 proved to be too strong at the moment. 1.2700 - 1.2725 shall now hold, if the uptrend is to continue.

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WallStreet6 28 July

It is quite a bit away, but good analysis! Let's see if the dollar weakens so much:)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, I was betting on consolidation. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 5: In line with the movement in oil, Loonie traded lower in the first part of the week. After flush-out and retest of the broken 1.2835 level on Wednesday, the pair turned back higher and, despite huge pullback on Friday, appears poised to close above 2009 high (1.3064). Weekly candle is very bullish, long lower tail with the close on new eleven-year highs.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Next week is the first one in August and, as such, it will provide us with bunch of important economic data. Along with the most eagerly awaited NFP report, Canadian jobs data will be released too. The pair appears set to continue the uptrend in the week ahead. There are not a lot of prominent levels until 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2007 decline (~1.3470). Perhaps late August 2009 (~1.3248) and July 2009 (~1.3385) highs may provide some resistance.

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EUR/USD rebound expected

rokasltu Posted 8 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2000, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Rebound #Sharp Down
From middle of last year EUR/USD went sharply down. This could be seen in chart below:
Such strong downside was invoked by geopolitical reasons, ECB rate cuts and planned stimulus. Furthermore Greece again started to be an issue as new elections is looming there.
But in any case EUR is quite strong currency and it might recover. If we look at daily chart and keep in mind magic of round figures we can expect that EUR/USD rate at the time of settlement will be around 1.20:
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