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AUD.IDX/AUD in 1 August

salamandra Posted 10 June as Analysis on AUS.IDX/AUD, Target: 5786.698, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Pivot #Bollinger Band #Aus IDX/AUD
Платформа: JFOREX
Рассматриваемые графики : день, неделя
Индикаторы: Bbands(20,2.0,2.0,EMA)- анализ волотильности и тенденций движения; ( MACD (9,19,9)- анализ волн, дивергенций; Stoch(8,3,3) – тенденция движения.
УровниPivot Month: 5786,303
УровниPivot Weekly: S1 5608,635R1 5896,636
Технический анализ: тренд на недельном таймфрейме восходящий. Последний фрагмент сравним с первой волной понижения в коррекционной структуре. Своим движением направляясь в сторону сопротивления S1 56…
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salamandra 15 July

5751.96 цена еще ближе в прогнозе. Оставшиеся дни вариант повышения с коррекционными возможностями в перспективе.

salamandra avatar
salamandra 20 July

5749.970  валютная пара еще не много понизилась в цене в сравнении с прошлым прогнозом. Мне же необходим рост, которого технически в данный момент пока нет. Канал разворачивается указывая на варианты возможного снижения индекса. 

salamandra avatar
salamandra 22 July

5695.369 Цена ниже прогноза.  На вариант снижения указывает и направление регрессионного канала. Вариант роста пока откладывается.

salamandra avatar
salamandra 24 July

5671.970 Времени все меньше и меньше к завершению конкурса. Индекс все не идет на уровень прогноза, хотя это и рядом. Ожидания сохраняются.

salamandra avatar
salamandra 28 July

5690.970 Индекс в ожидании пятничных данных по основным фючерсам от CFTC. От результата этих пятничных данных и будет результат по рассматриваемых мной индексах и возможность исполнения или не исполнения прогноза в  отклонениях. 

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USDCHF на 3-е апреля

salamandra Posted 26 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0199, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Level #USD/CHF #Channel #Pivot #Regression
Инструменты анализа:
- трендовые: индикатор Регрессионный канал ( линейный и не линейный ), Bbands стандартные установки используется по волотильности только для определения участков возможной смены тренда (сужение, расширение полос), трендовые каналы;
- флетовые: стандартный стохастик индикатор, регрессионный канал ( наклон канала );
- дополнительные: уровни Фибоначчи ( линии, расширение, веер ), паттерны, уровни поддержки и сопротивления, дивергенция.
- особое внимание на патерны в ключевы…
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salamandra avatar
salamandra 11 Mar.

1,0101 цена продолжает скрывать свои намерения. Предстоящая неделя на 14-15 марта заседанием ФРС по вопросу процентной ставки во многом своим влиянием на рынки сможет повлиять на все валютные пары. Естественно реакция будет разной в зависимости от повышения или не повышения ставки. Отсюда логичней говорить о прогнозе после этого заседания. А пока все в рамках ожиданий. 

salamandra avatar
salamandra 18 Mar.

0,9982 Главное событие недели 14-15 марта процентная ставка ФРС состоялось . Ставка было поднята на 0,25%, но рынок не поддержал роста доллара ибо не такие были ожидания дальнейших повышений. Учитывая, что ФРС не собирается поднимать процентные ставки не опираясь на фундаментальность рынок может продолжить коррекционные движения начавшиеся с Нового года. А отсюда движения не сильной волотильности с возможностью хаотичности.  Теперь фундаментальность страны выходит на первый план анализа.

salamandra avatar
salamandra 29 Mar.

0,9968 еще б два следующих дня не потеряли динамичность в движении и была б возможность встречать прогноз. Но увы, скорее всего движение замедлится или даже свернет в другую сторону.

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Key Levels for AUD/CAD

Illya Posted 23 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/CAD #Double Top #Pivot
Hi there! Tonight I want to introduce you my view about a key price levels for AUD/CAD
  • R1 - 0.9846
  • R2 - 0.9923
  • R3 - 09989
    S1 - 0.9765
  • S2 - 0.9680
  • S3 - 0.9594
To the end of the week, we had a large impulse down, and price reached a 0 level on indicator PersBBands. I see the situation that on to the next weww price will test a oversold area and will test price leve S2 & S3. Also we have not ot forget that on a weekly time frame we could see a DOBULE TOP pattern. So don't loose a chance to have a goo…
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USD/CAD will continue to consolidate

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2575, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Consolidation #Correction #Symmetrical Triangle #Uptrend #Pivot #Rebound #Strong Demand
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear the stops below 1.20 level. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement shall offer further support ahead of 20 month SMA, should the pair continue to correct lower.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 r…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 4: After opening the week some 50 pips above Friday's closing levels, the pair went on to rally and managed to break above the range that contained it in the second part of the previous week. It briefly traded above last Tuesday's high (~1.2780) but the resistance in 1.2800 - 1.2835 proved to be too strong at the moment. 1.2700 - 1.2725 shall now hold, if the uptrend is to continue.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

It is quite a bit away, but good analysis! Let's see if the dollar weakens so much:)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, I was betting on consolidation. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 5: In line with the movement in oil, Loonie traded lower in the first part of the week. After flush-out and retest of the broken 1.2835 level on Wednesday, the pair turned back higher and, despite huge pullback on Friday, appears poised to close above 2009 high (1.3064). Weekly candle is very bullish, long lower tail with the close on new eleven-year highs.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Next week is the first one in August and, as such, it will provide us with bunch of important economic data. Along with the most eagerly awaited NFP report, Canadian jobs data will be released too. The pair appears set to continue the uptrend in the week ahead. There are not a lot of prominent levels until 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2007 decline (~1.3470). Perhaps late August 2009 (~1.3248) and July 2009 (~1.3385) highs may provide some resistance.

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Forex: USD/CHF, short term analysis

dirzu_a Posted 2 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9955, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Short Term #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Confirmation #Pivot
Even it's movements seemed to be chaotic, this currency pair is keen to go as much as 0.9955 (127.2 of the Fibonacci extension measured on the upside move 0.96875 - 0.87011) for two reasons, as follows:
1. It's situated in the upside bias, because the price remained over the 0.9395 pivot level.
2. Broke the superior side of the confirmation range of 0.9395 - 0.9599
Money management:
S/L will be placed on the nearest pivot level - on the 0.9395 level.
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Forex: EUR/AUD, short term analysis

dirzu_a Posted 1 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/AUD, Target: 1.4951, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #EUR/AUD #Pivot
EUR/AUD has risen significantly, not even on this week by the presence of the chart gap but we have seen closing higher, on past friday, near the past temporary high of 1.47024 level. I have the conviction that this pair will go higher, to 1.49508 (which is the 127.2 Fibonacci extension measured on the 1.3789 -1.47024 move) because this currency pair met two important condition, as follows:
1. Rose and close over the 1.4464 pivot level, which means the price has established itself in the upside …
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VictoriaVika 14 Mar.

Well done, very good!

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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Channel #Pivot
I've been posted this analysis in Technical Analysis Contest as well but I thought it has great potential to turn into a nice trade so I'm sharing my analysis here as well: CAD/CHF Downward Channel
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that ca…
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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7785, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Downward Channel #Pivot
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that can stop this bearish trend. I'm still expecting this trend to press lower and to retest the all time swing low level at 0.7100.
In Figure 1 we have the CAD/CHF weekly chart where we can visualize how slo…
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Convallium 13 Apr.

Daytrader21 when do you have  time to write so many blog posts?  it is amazing) !

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Daytrader21 21 Apr.

Update 1: We have been trading in a very narrow market in the last week between 0.7960 support level and 0.8030 resistance level.This is just the first leg that started from the 0.8160 swing high level, based on my prediction we should see a five wave to the downside.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: The narrow market condition has been very persistent over the last two weeks and we're still stuck in a tight congestion zone: 0.8050-0.7950. I suspect we're going to break to the downside and trade in the direction of the main trend.

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: Unfortunately this pair doesn't follow my forecast and it seems the momentum already started to pick up.

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EURUsd bouncing off weekly pivot and Fib expansion level

AdamFx42 Posted 16 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.3670, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Short #Retracement #Pivot #H S #Daily Trendline #Downward Breakout
Eur/Usd has hit weekly resistance 1 and top side of the daily channel trend-line,
and a retracement back down would seem in order,
fundamentally, the trouble in the Ukraine and the softer tone of the dollar
and the uncertainty on the fx market in general should support this move
If we take a look at the weekly chart we see the weekly R1 level at 1.3959 has been hit,
and I have drawn the most recent weekly trend-lines up
On the first daily chart we see a close up of the latest weekly move,
and t…
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AdamFx42 24 Mar.

First big move down is done - now back up and re-testing neckline, if pair fails to break back up we should see a deeper move down taking out previous lows and towards my target area

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AdamFx42 14 Apr.

Failure to break the previous highs should lead to a deeper move down now - also lot of uncertainty in the market now concerning Ukraine which may speed things up

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AdamFx42 17 Apr.

Eur/Usd showing a bit of weakness now, we shall see

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