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Fed was arguably more hawkish than expected, now seeing four hikes this year, or cumulative 100 bp. In addition, the bank is going to hold press conferences after every meeting, starting January 2019, which could be seen as more opportunity to hike further, provided that the economy maintains current pace. U.S. dollar spiked higher initially but reversed the very next hour, which is telling. We'll see what European traders have to say before heading to pubs and TV screens, as FIFA World Cup star…
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Searching the surprise
Hello traders,
I will try to make some extraordinary prediction based on the lates movements.
Currently it is obvious that the price of the pair - EUR/USD is going down. There are more fundamental reasons for this than technicals. Despite the fact that we have head and shoulders formation and triple top combined with the strong resistance of the round level 1.2 I am giving a shot to the level 1.22. The reason for this is that currently the channel up is still intact from the major uptrend as sho…
I will try to make some extraordinary prediction based on the lates movements.
Currently it is obvious that the price of the pair - EUR/USD is going down. There are more fundamental reasons for this than technicals. Despite the fact that we have head and shoulders formation and triple top combined with the strong resistance of the round level 1.2 I am giving a shot to the level 1.22. The reason for this is that currently the channel up is still intact from the major uptrend as sho…
Loonies consolidates after a big move
USD/CAD appears to be in the process of making a (short-term) bottom above the 50.0% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. Volatility fell in recent days as the pair consolidates after selling off following the second consecutive rate hike by the BOC.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
USD/CAD sells off after hawkish BOC
Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. It was the first interest rate hike by the bank after seven years. The hike was widely anticipated but the bank surprised with a hawkish statement. I think at least one more hike is to be expected from them this year.
USD/CAD sold off nearly 230 pips (1.8%) before bouncing off of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. That is the support level to watch in the days ahead. On the upside, 1.28 - 1.285 looks like a decent area for …
USD/CAD sold off nearly 230 pips (1.8%) before bouncing off of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. That is the support level to watch in the days ahead. On the upside, 1.28 - 1.285 looks like a decent area for …
USD fading
US inflation released this Friday was worse-than-expected, and while is not a game changer for the Fed, it actually was for the greenback, sending it sharply lower across the board. Somehow, the movement indicates a) that a rate hike is pretty much priced in, and b) that confidence in whatever reform Trump will bring continues fading. Bottom line, despite retaining part of its gains, the future does not look that bright for the USD at this point.
June hike
The probability of the June hike is over 80%, while the probability of the September hike is nearing 40%, according to Bloomberg. The two-year yield touched 1.35%, the highest since March. And "Market-based measures of inflation expectations, meanwhile, remain close to the Fed's 2 percent target. While down from January's highs, the U.S. 10- year breakeven rate is 1.86 percentage points, compared with about 1.6 percentage points a year ago." If rate hike happened once again usd/JPY will go down …
Kiwi falls as FOMC remains constructive
As widely anticipated, FOMC made no changes to interest rates. The accompanying statement didn't change much. Perhaps the key takeaway is the ease with which the committee dismissed slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely transitory. That confirms June hike is firmly on the table.
With RBNZ expected to remain sidelined for a considerable period of time, New Zealand dollar is slowly losing its interest rate advantage over the U.S. dollar. Kiwi topped out near 0.7050 in April and the …
With RBNZ expected to remain sidelined for a considerable period of time, New Zealand dollar is slowly losing its interest rate advantage over the U.S. dollar. Kiwi topped out near 0.7050 in April and the …
Dollar weakeing as Doubt rise over how certain FED is on March rate hike
Dollar is weakening as doubt arises over Fed's rate hike in March . EURUSD breaches resistant level at 1.0630 and testing to go higher. 1.67 is likely to be tested today.Dollar weakens in all pairs and as a result dollar index weakens. Dollar Index - 101.31.My short term take on the probable price -
Will Dollar stregthen as FED gives hawkish with plan to hike rate in march?
On the back of strong signal from FED to hike rate in March, and Trumps's plan for $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus, will USD streghtens and by how much?
USD will probably test recent low of 1.035 sooner rather than later.
USD will probably test recent low of 1.035 sooner rather than later.
U.S. jobs report came in weaker than expected
Eagerly awaited U.S. jobs and wages report came in weaker than expected. While the headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure came in at a solid 151K, both Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours ticked down.
That probably means no September rate hike from the Fed but December remains firmly on the table. U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the euro, the yen and the franc and lower against the pound and the commodity block.
That probably means no September rate hike from the Fed but December remains firmly on the table. U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the euro, the yen and the franc and lower against the pound and the commodity block.