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Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

al_dcdemo Publicado 4 Dic como análisis en NZD/USD, Objetivo: 0.6975, Fecha: 1 de Febrero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dic

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Ene

UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

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USD/JPY to start 2018 on the back foot

al_dcdemo Publicado 4 Dic como análisis en USD/JPY, Objetivo: 108.75, Fecha: 1 de Febrero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction that followe…
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Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
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al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 9 Ene

UPDATE 10: USD/JPY dropped like a rock as Bank of Japan bought slightly less JGBs than in previous open market operation. Selling already began yesterday though as the pair rejected prices above 113.30. 112 - 112.25 is the support area to watch.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Ene

UPDATE 11: U.S. government failed to pass funding bill and went into shutdown. This will probably last a couple of weeks, the question is what it means for the U.S. dollar. A small gap lower is possible, but with ECB and BOJ meetings next week, a correction rather than continuation of the dollar weakness may be in the cards.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Ene

UPDATE 12: BOJ kept the monetary policy unchanged at this meeting. The bank admitted that inflation is (slowly) rising towards the target of 2.0% and bumped up inflation expectations outlook in quarterly report. USD/JPY dropped about 30 pips but has since recovered. 110 - 110.25 is the area to watch on the downside and 111.50 on the upside.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Feb

UPDATE 13: FOMC left federal funds rate in 1.25% - 1.50% range, as expected. The statement was seen as slightly more hawkish than expected. March hike appears to be a done deal with some quarters now expecting as many as four rate hikes this year. U.S. dollar looks supported but will it last?

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USD/CHF to test 200 week SMA before bouncing

al_dcdemo Publicado 4 Dic como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9825, Fecha: 1 de Febrero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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Traducir a inglés Mostrar original

Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
Por favor, ingrese o elija otro idioma para traducir la lista.

– o –

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al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 6: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Ene

UPDATE 9: USD/CHF broke above the pivotal 0.98 level, after spending one week below it. Position in the futures market is net short, but not at extreme levels, so there might still be some upside potential. Trendline, drawn off of October and December highs, is the area to keep an eye on.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 Ene

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar extended losses yesterday after treasury secretary Mnuchin told World Economic Forum that a weak dollar is good for trade. USD/CHF fell below 2014 - 2017 support line and stalled at the strong support area 0.94 - 0.945. A successful break would bring 0.90 - 0.91 into focus.

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Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 Nov como análisis en NZD/USD, Objetivo: 0.6925, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original

Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
Por favor, ingrese o elija otro idioma para traducir la lista.

– o –

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al_dcdemo 15 Dic

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dic

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Yen to move closer to 110

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 Nov como análisis en USD/JPY, Objetivo: 110.50, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction that followe…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original

Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
Por favor, ingrese o elija otro idioma para traducir la lista.

– o –

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al_dcdemo 19 Dic

UPDATE 5: After a 50-pip range yesterday, USD/JPY mustered only 15 pips so far today. Maybe U.S. traders can provide some volatility for this pair. The BOJ meets on Thursday and is expected to keep the policy steady. Traders will be on a lookout for any hawkish hints.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dic

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 7: Next week could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/CHF to test below 0.98 in December

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 Nov como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9775, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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Traducir a inglés Mostrar original

Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
Por favor, ingrese o elija otro idioma para traducir la lista.

– o –

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al_dcdemo 15 Dic

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have grown surprisingly quiet this year.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dic

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 7: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/JPY to test 115 in November

al_dcdemo Publicado 23 Oct como análisis en USD/JPY, Objetivo: 114.25, Fecha: 1 de Diciembre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction, that follow…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original

Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
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al_dcdemo 7 Nov

UPDATE 5: The pair rallied about 50 pips in the opening hours, on the back of dovish comments by BOJ governor Kuroda, but then gave back twice as much by the end of the day.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 Nov

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar recorded a losing week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate said to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Nov

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Nov

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Nov

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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USD/CAD to stabilize near 1.25 in October

al_dcdemo Publicado 26 Sep como análisis en USD/CAD, Objetivo: 1.2475, Fecha: 1 de Noviembre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Downtrend #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hawkish Boc #Short Term Bottom
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation. 1.28 - 1.30 has been centra…
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Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Oct

UPDATE 6: Canadian dollar has been less driven by oil prices recently. 530-pip move from the lows near 1.2050 could be seen as a correction of excessive monetary policy tightening expectations. Uncertainty surrounding NAFTA has been another headwind. The pair found equilibrium in a range centered on 1.25 level. 1.24 - 1.2430 is the range support and 1.2570 - 1.26 is the resistance. A convincing break of either extreme will signal the direction for the next leg.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Oct

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 Oct

UPDATE 8: BOC decided to leave overnight rate at 1.0% at today's meeting. GDP forecasts were revised slightly lower while CPI forecasts were just marginally bumped up. The bank expressed concern with regard to geopolitical developments, NAFTA and high levels of household debt, and said they will be cautious in making future adjustments to the rate. The fact that such a scenario was widely anticipated didn't help the Canadian dollar. After a quick washout to 1.2635, USD/CAD jumped 100 pips, added 80 more in the following hours and stalled ahead of 2015 - 2017 S/R line (1.2825).

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Oct

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the yen.

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Cable could make another attempt at the upside

al_dcdemo Publicado 26 Sep como análisis en GBP/USD, Objetivo: 1.3625, Fecha: 1 de Noviembre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below long-term support line in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-crash in Oc…
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Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
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al_dcdemo 12 Oct

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Oct

UPDATE 7: U.K. CPI hit 3.0% on the year-over-year basis for the first time since 2013. Wage inflation ticked higher too, but is running well below the inflation level, making it hard for the Bank of England to justify the impending bank rate hike. Cable is holding just above 50 DMA ahead of the retail sales report at 08:30 GMT. We may see more selling on a weaker number than buying on a stronger one. 1.2950 - 1.30 is the target area, if the pair continues lower. 1.3450 - 1.35 is the target area, it the pair decides to head higher.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Oct

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Oct

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar Japanese yen.

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USD/JPY to stay supported in October

al_dcdemo Publicado 25 Sep como análisis en USD/JPY, Objetivo: 113.25, Fecha: 1 de Noviembre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returne…
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Puesto que usted no está conectado, no sabemos su idioma, pero suponemos que es inglés
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al_dcdemo 20 Oct

UPDATE 6: During a bout of risk-off yesterday, USD/JPY fell on news that Spain's cabinet will suspend Catalan autonomy on Saturday, but there was no follow through. The pair recouped all losses and surged to a new weekly high overnight as U.S. senate approved budget plan that moves them closer to tax reform. The pair is currently trading just above 113. The initial resistance is at 113.40 where the declining 2017 trendline coincides with last week's high. If that gives way, 114 will come into focus. 112.75 - 113 should hold while bulls are in control.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Oct

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Oct

UPDATE 8: Japanese voters supported current PM Abe on the weekend. That means at least a couple more years of Abenomics, even though BOJ governor Kuroda may not be selected for the second term next year. Stocks liked this and yen was sold. At least initially. USD/JPY gapped 30 pips at the open and extended that by about 25 pips but it was backing a filling from there. A late round of risk aversion took the pair down to the 113.25 support, from where it bounced. 114 is the the first stronger resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Oct

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the Japanese yen.

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al_dcdemo 1 Nov

UPDATE 10: USD/JPY remains fundamentally supported on both sides of equation. Progress on U.S. tax reform means prospects for more Fed hikes and wider interest rate spread. Japanese PM Abe's recent election victory means more Abenomics. After seven consecutive green weeks, Nikkei is trading at 20-year highs. The pair started the week by falling below the 2017 resistance line, but is already back above the level. 114 is the immediate resistance before last week's high near 114.5. After that, 115 - 116 is the major resistance area to watch. 113.25 - 113.5 looks like a strong support.

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