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Loonie looks headed to 1.35

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 6 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Low Volatility #D1 Chart #Oil Disconnect #Better Economic Data
Canadian dollar has been one of the more active currencies in this low volatility week. A disconnect with the oil trade continues as both markets went the opposite ways. The currency fell despite mostly better than expected economic data over the last couple of weeks.
1.3455 - 1.35 is the initial resistance. A move above would target 1.3535 (March high) and then 1.3575 - 1.36 (50.0% retracement of 2016 downswing, December high). 1.3380 - 1.3410 should offer some support on any pullback.
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EUR/SEK Nears Top of the Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5581, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Top #Single Currency #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona has been trading range-bound versus the Euro since the start of 2015. In December 2014 we peaked at 9.7268 and we haven't surpassed this high ever since. This doesn't mean that the bulls haven't tried. On the weekly chart below we show 5 subsequent attempts to break above this previous high, with no success.
With prices now nearing the levels where previous rallies have failed, it's natural to ask has the current move higher been overdone? I think yes. Notice how the Stochastic…
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The bulls have again been repelled (see pic 1 above) this time peaking at 9.5991. In the retracement that followed, a low of 9.4260 was hit.

The Stochastic (see pic 2 above) predicted this rejection nicely. But I don't put too much weight on indicators and I think the bigger reason for the resistance cluster we have above 9.6000.

This should continue to act as a lid on prices. We're now trading at 9.5072, about half a percent away from forecast.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

The EUR/SEK had a large rally during the past 24 hours. We moved from 5.5072 to a high of 5.5855. This is a rally of 1.4 percent in a pair that doesn't move that much.

Unfortunately for me, this means that the pair went from undershooting my target to overshooting it by quite a bit.

But it's not over yet! As I mentioned in my other comments I expect the resistance cluster from 9.60 to 9.78 to do its job and repel prices once again. Hopefully this will lead to the EUR/SEK landing nicely at my forecasted price and not undershoot it :)

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Time for another update! Prices did overshoot my target somewhat. As expected, as we got near the highs the pair was pummeled back into the ground.

We fell to a low of 9.5420 around mid-day but in the next few hours the EUR/SEK rose a bit, bringing it very close to my target.

At 12:00 GMT we closed at 9.5531, only 50 pips or 0.05% away from my forecasted price. Overall I think this was a solid analysis on my part. I identified the general market sentiment and made a correct bet that the resistance levels would keep prices down.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Here's an updated chart of what happened in August. Prices tried to make a run and break the highs but they were again repelled.

Note that now we have six rectangles on the chart, not five like in my original post. The last rectangle shows the latest price rejection this month.

The cluster of resistance levels from around 9.60 to 9.72 has again successfully stopped another rally in the EUR/SEK.

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More of the Same for the EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.3855, Date: 1 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Range #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK has been range-bound since December of 2014. We saw a high of 9.7285 during that time-frame and a low of 9.0511 but ultimately prices keep reverting to the middle of the extremes around 9.3500. We are currently quoted not far from here at 9.3842.
Things are not looking good for trend traders on lower timeframes as well. For example notice how on the 4 Hour chart below we traded around 9.3800 before that big jump in volatility in the middle (the UK referendum). As we got close to the …
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No major changes for NZD/CHF

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/CHF, Target: 0.7530, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/CHF #Consolidation #Low Volatility
Currency Pair:Nzd/Chf
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.7495
Trend: sideway
Possible trading range:0.7350 - 0.77
Signals: becuase we are in the lower part of the triangle (weekly chart) it's worth to buy in this area
Forecast: further consolidation is in the sight not exceeding the 0.7650 level.
My target: 0.7530
Weekly chart (below)
Daily chart (below)
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marius24 6 Nov.

update: We had some movements in this pair in the last 6 days given the low volatility which characterizes this currency pair. The price dropped from 0.7555 to 0.7394 due to the fall in Nzd/USd, otherwise the technical part was giving no bearish signals at all. From here (0.7460) i rather choose to enter long than short taking into account the oversold status in NZd/Usd

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marius24 19 Nov.

update:i was 100% right when i said 13 days ago to go long on this pair. The price jumped from 0.7480 towards 0.7657 being backed by a very clear double bottom situated on the daily chart with its neckline breached at around 0.7580. From this moment the bullish breakout is fading away as long as the price will remain under 0.7580. The current price is 0.7539 quite close to my target.

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marius24 26 Nov.

update: the price visited a higher level around 0.7684, but it was unable to remain there and therefore Nzd/Chf returned in the same price zone between 0.7450 and 0.7550. On the daily chart the bulls tried to breakout a double bottom at around 0.7580 , but so far it proved to be a false one. The current price is at 0.7560 and my target is at 0.7530.

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marius24 30 Nov.

update:on the 4 hour chart a double top pattern is on teh horizon with its neckline at around 0.7512. My target is placed at 0.7530 and the current price is at 0.7553. I need a further fall in order to hit my target. Let's wait and see

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My Trading Bias for this Week

Daytrader21 Aktualisierte 1 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Low Volatility #Trading Bias #Narrow Range #Carry Trading
As long as we're staying in this low volatility environment (see Figure 1)it's very hard to have a clear trading bias when the majority of currency pairs are moving in narrow ranges, unless we already have a clear trend like EUR/USD which as per my expectation has started a very healthy bearish trend. So, beside having a bearish bias for EUR/USD I'm also expecting the high yielding currencies to get a bit as it make sense for investors who are chasing yield and a return in this market to apply …
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Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 1 Sep.

That's exactly the problem! There is no more credit available to give them, they've already sucked the market dry.

Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 1 Sep.

:)

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Shalomavahatikvah 1 Sep.

Thanks for the LIKE on my blog sir.

Stix avatar
Stix 2 Sep.

Best wishes, Daytrader21 ! :)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2 Sep.

Stix  Thanks, wish you all the best as well.

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