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Swissie to approach 1.0250 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0225, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Parity Level #Intersection
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 16 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Follow-through buying after Wednesday's FOMC decision saw Swissie briefly broke above 2015 high (1.0328) yesterday, posting a six-year high (1.0343). There seemed to be little reaction to the SNB which kept its policy stance unchanged. The pair is pulling back from the highs and 1.02 - 1.025 looks like a decent initial support. Should the rally continue, the first major resistance is seen near the 2008 - 2016 support/resistance line which is backed by the big figure level at 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 7: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the U.S. dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any event.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude the spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 10: The sharp spike lower on Friday was completely retraced by the time European session got underway. Swiss franc ended the last trading day of 2016 slightly higher but headed down on the first day of the new year. It's a holiday in many countries today still but we will not have to wait for too long to see how the first real moves for the year will look like as liquidity returns to the market. The pair looks poised to end the contest period a couple of pips from my target of 1.0225. Excluding the aforementioned spike, the pair followed the expected price path quite closely.

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Swissie to test parity level in November

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Parity Level #Intersection
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 9 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my view.

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al_dcdemo 14 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Swisse has been another currency pair that has benefited from the positive risk sentiment after the U.S. election. The low on that day extended to 0.9550 from which the pair rallied about three cents, closing a cent higher on the week. Trendline drawn off of November 2015 and January 2016 highs comes in near parity level this week and is the important confluence to watch. If momentum carries on the pair could just slice through. In the event of a deeper pullback, 0.975 - 0.98 is the support zone to watch.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (large fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Nov.

UPDATE 8: USD/CHF rallied about 650 pips (6.8%) since the U.S. election low on November 9th. That's hardly a half of what USD/JPY showed (1270 pips, 12.6%) but is still a lot for just under three weeks. The moves do not appear to be over yet. 2015 (1.0325) and 2016 (1.0250) highs are not very far away with the next major target being the 2008 - 2016 support/resistance line, which is currently running near 1.0450. Pullbacks have been shallow but a deeper one may not extend much below the parity level.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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