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GBP/USD to jump on no Brexit no Fed hike

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4825, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range #UK EU Referendum
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows se…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 5: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150 pip decline in Cable and a 200 pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 17 June

UPDATE 7: Cable staged an impressive reversal yesterday, sadly after the killing of a British MP, a supporter of the Remain campaign. A big part of it was probably just profit taking in GBP/JPY after stops below 150 were cleared all the way to 145. Cable posted a hammer-like reversal on the daily chart and followed through overnight. 1.43 - 1.4350 is the next stronger support (May low, 100 DMA, broken February - April trendline) and then 1.4450 - 1.45 (includes 50 DMA). 1.42 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 9: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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GBP/USD to remain in broadly sideways mode

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4375, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Referendum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows s…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a few weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a huge surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance near 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 24 May

UPDATE 9: After it tried both the upside and the downside in yesterday's trading, Cable settled in the middle of the day's range and the middle of the last week's range. Recent polls show Remain vote firmly ahead but concerns have been mounting that it is not only the potential Brexit that has been holding U.K. GDP growth down. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA last week and the two levels now nicely coincide with May low, making area near 1.4350 a decent support. On the upside, 1.4660 (May 19th high) is followed by 1.4770 (May high, 200 DMA) and then 1.4880 (50.0% retracement).

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 10: Cable staged an impressive outside day reversal yesterday. A Brexit poll showing Leave ahead was touted as a culprit. The pair traded up to 1.4640 in Asian session but then fell all the way to 1.4465 in European and N.A. session, closing near the low. It was unable to rally today, despite an improvement in Manufacturing PMI. If it manages to hold below 1.45, further downside is likely with the first target 1.44 (50 DMA) and then 1.4325 - 1.4350 (May low, 100 DMA). 1.45 is the initial resistance and then 1.4565 (yesterday's European session low, also 2015 low).

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GBP/USD to consolidate near 1.40 level

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4075, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Seven Year Lows #Hedging Supply
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows tw…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week mostly with small gaps against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Cable has been range-bound between 1.40 and 1.45 for the most of the past month and a half with price spending most of the time within inner, 1.41 - 1.44, range. If we exclude late February / early March dip, the pair has been carving out a declining wedge since mid January. Helped by better than expected inflation report the pair surged to 1.4350 but then reversed and is now back under 50 DMA which is running at the midpoint of the aforementioned range. I expect the pair to stay in this mode for now.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 7: While commodity currencies already had a great couple of days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as most commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and plethora of central bank speakers.

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