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Possible range

megajorko Posted 19 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1717, Date: 2nd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Ema #Bollinger Bands #Rsi 14 #Fomc Meeting Minutes
Technical analysis on the EUR/USD pair for the 2nd of July.
The current trend is obviosly down and it started in the middle of April. After some observation on the Bollinger bands we can see that the price is currently attracted by the lower BB which is at about level 1.17 on the Daily chart.
The level of the relative strength index is showing deep oversold levels even under 15 on the default Daily parameters.
After looking on the weekly chart we can say that the price is even trying to reach t…
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AUD/USD nearing the 0.775 support

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #AUD/USD #Hawkish #Fomc Meeting Minutes #Risk Sentiment #Wage Inflation
Risk sentiment soured yesterday after the release of the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Stocks went lower and the U.S. dollar extended its winning streak to four consecutive days against most currencies. AUD/USD was also hit yesterday on tepid wage inflation data. If the current mode continues, the pair will be testing 0.775, and possibly 0.765, soon.
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U.S. dollar gains after hawkish FOMC Minutes

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #USD/JPY #Fomc Meeting Minutes #D1 Chart #Risk Mood
Quite some action after the release of the Minutes of the January FOMC meeting. U.S. dollar spiked lower but then completely reversed course and went to a new high for the day against most major currencies. USD/JPY is facing a stiff resistance ahead of 108 but, absent a sharp deterioration in risk mood, it's probably more a question of when rather than if it will yield.
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USD/JPY breaks above 50.0% retracement

al_dcdemo Updated 24 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Fomc Meeting Minutes #D1 Chart #Durable Goods Orders
USD/JPY rose 200 pips yesterday in the first four hours of N.A. trading. (Core) Durable Goods Orders report was better than expected while Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales missed expectations but still came in solid. Later, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed broad support for a December hike.
The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement)…
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FOMC meeting minutes surprise

al_dcdemo Updated 19 May  in #Trader's blog #USD/CAD #Strong Resistance #Fomc Meeting Minutes #D1 Chart #June Rate Hike #Remain Option
Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely does this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September.
The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Rema…
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Swissie breaks 0.98

al_dcdemo Posted 18 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting Minutes #D1 Chart #Low Volume
Swissie finally broke above the strong resistance level at 0.98. The breakout came overnight on low volumes so I would be wary of a pullback, perhaps on the release of FOMC meeting minutes later today.
The immediate resistance is the confluence of 100 DMA and 200 DMA. Beyond that, 0.99 and 1.00 are the next levels where I'd expect some selling to come in. 0.975 - 0.98 shall now hold as a support, if this market is indeed bullish.
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FOMC meeting minutes didn't impress

al_dcdemo Posted 18 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Fomc Meeting Minutes #USD Strength #Rate Hikes #D1 Chart #Downside Risks #Oil Weakness
FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
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4 Comments
Nihad avatar
Nihad 18 Feb.

al_dcdemo and since when it did? :)

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al_dcdemo 19 Feb.

Nihad It's essentially an old data that rarely offers anything new. But I did thought there would be a bigger reaction to it this time around.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 19 Feb.

am kidding man, it's not just old data, their model is extra-lagging, let me give you quote by Kevin Warsh, a former FED governor in Friday 5, 2016: "The FED may have well missed the business cycle entirely. The financial cycle seems to have turned as well. The economy has chronically underperformed what they predicted"

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

You're right, I read about that underperformance also. But this is issue with other CBs too - why not just set goals that are achievable? I'm not an economist but could it be that all this is just an excuse to print more money? :) These economic events and figures - true, false, fake, whatever - do however provide opportunity, be it intraday or longer term. But any trading decisions should be done based on hard evidence - starting with price action.

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EURo finds some relief after FOMC meeting minutes

al_dcdemo Posted 6 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Inflation #EUR/USD #Fomc Meeting Minutes #H1 Chart
Euro spent the day range-bound between ~1.0725 and ~1.0775. FOMC meeting minutes, released at 19:00 GMT, were not as hawkish as expected with several members expressing concerns over low inflation and risks to its outlook.
The pair put up a 50 pip rally in response, breaking out of the aforementioned range. 1.08 is the first stronger resistance level while 1.0750 - 1.0775 shall now act as a support.
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EURo pulls back

al_dcdemo Updated 20 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Parity #Fomc Meeting Minutes #H1 Chart #U S Dollar Selling #Long Term Trendline
Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750.
Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.
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Cable had another decent day

al_dcdemo Updated 19 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Fomc Meeting Minutes #H1 Chart #Dollar Selling
FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication.
Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending t…
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2 Comments
pipx avatar
pipx 19 Nov.

This helped me make about 250+ pips on GBPAUD and GBPUSD.  I was able to recover my account's loss.

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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

Well done! That 200 DMA capped price nicely. :)

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