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USD/TRY looks to breakout of triangle

USD/TRY is tracing a descending triangle and probably will breakout. If the pair breach 1.383 resistant level, it will turn bullish.
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GBP/NZD looks to extends its fall

GBP/NZD is likely to fall 1.716 support level. The pair is tracing a descending triangle pattern which is a bullish pattern.
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EURUSD TARGET ON 2 JAN 17

Technical Tools Used
Support and resistance (S/R), Price levels, Trend lines. Price action, candlesticks, shapes like ellipse and text boxes.
Weekly Chart

As it is very clear from the chart above that the pair is in a Descending triangle and the Euro region showing signs of weakness and I expect the trend line being kissed by the pair to be broken soon and the pair may even break the horizontal support shown in the chart . In this case the price action is showing signs that there will be a bre…
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 1 Дек.

Great work!

TInna avatar
TInna 9 Дек.

great!

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EUR/JPY is bearish

EUR/JPY has been falling forming a descending triangle. It will likely test the 119.1 support level.
For Analysis, triangle and support and resistant levels are used.
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Upside in USD/CAD appears more likely

Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. I'd say the retracement has been properly broken as the pair posted second monthly close above that level in March. February 2009 high (1.3064) now comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end …
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 6 Апр.

UPDATE 2: Friday's NFP move appears to be a bit overdone and a pullback to 1.2500 - 1.2550 appears likely, before potential follow through move lower. The direction will also strongly depend on Canadian Ivey PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which will be released on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Range support at 1.2350 is the first strong level to watch.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 Апр.

UPDATE 3: Canadian Dollar defied US Dollar strength in the first part of the week, but after huge build-up was shown in Crude Oil Inventories report on Wednesday, the pair reversed sharply. FOMC Minutes, released few hours later, didn't help it. It added another cent on Thursday and early Friday, but another reversal came after much better than expected Canadian Employment Change (though the details were not as strong).

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al_dcdemo 12 Апр.

UPDATE 4: Focus in the week ahead will be on the BOC meeting on Wednesday. Even though no change is expected in Overnight Rate, the market may be expecting dovish Rate Statement or at least some downside revisions in the Monetary Policy Report. If that doesn't happen and oil continues to consolidate, there's risk that the pair breaks three-month range bottom at 1.2350. Most likely scenario is, however, that the pair remains range-bound.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Апр.

UPDATE 5: The pair was the star performer among majors this week (pip and percentage-wise) and also had the greatest weekly trading range. The break of the 3-month range came on Wednesday after the combination of almost hawkish BOC and recovering price of oil sent the pair down to 1.2280. The downtrend continued on Thursday and into Friday, but the pair then recovered by almost 200 pips in a broader USD pullback.

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al_dcdemo 19 Апр.

UPDATE 6: Along with two speeches from Poloz and a couple of US data releases, there's not much on the calendar that may move the pair in the week ahead. Focus will likely be on technicals and flows as longer-term bulls will begin to scale into their long positions and shorter-term bears will be adding to their shorts. Most probable scenario is a retest of the broken range bottom (1.2350) from below and then continuation lower.

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USD/CAD will retrace a bit

Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. If it convincingly breaks the retracement then February 2009 high (1.3064) comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is now acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end of 2014, the pair added further 1100 pips in January 2015 alone. Tech…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 7 Март

UPDATE 1: Action in the pair is still range bound (on the daily chart) and is not yet clear which way the descending triangle will break, but most likely it will be the topside. January 30 high would then provide further resistance before 1.3000 - 1.3050. On the downside, strong support between 1.2350 - 1.2400 dominates.

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al_dcdemo 15 Март

UPDATE 2: Last Friday's breakout from descending triangle proved to be real one as the pair continued to trade higher. There was quite substantial pullback on Thursday, but it was quickly soaked up. On Friday, the pair managed to break above January 30 high (1.2799), but then closed just below it. Despite this, technical picture remains bullish.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Март

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair closely resembled that in other major pairs, which is not surprising at all, since the whole week unfolded around single main event - FOMC meeting. Small range in the beginning of the week, nearly 400 pip spike lower on Wednesday and then retest of pre-announcement range, which was followed with a broad USD sell-off on Friday. The pair closed just below 50 DMA but above descending triangle "roof" , which was broken last week. If the two levels give way, proven weekly resistance at 1.2350 may be tested next.

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Silver First target Hit. Gold heading towards $900

Silver and gold have been on tears this week and it comes as no surprise here as the Fed finally has put an end to the almighty QE program. Silver has been hitting my first target of $16.66 projected by the October 2011-April 2013 rectangle pattern (see Figure 1). You can check out my last article about silver through my blog history.
Figure 1. Silver Weekly Chart

It is no surprise that after Silver broke last month key support level of $18.20 it was just a matter of time for gold to follow suit…
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Metals Outlook. Silver Leading The Way Down

If last week was all about the FX move, this week the metals are going to be on the front page. With silver breaking key support level at $18.20 this marks the stage for further downside movements. Silver was developing and completed an descending triangle over the last 1.2 years. I've been speaking about this developments in the silver market more than 5 months ago, making the case for a break lower, you can find that post in my history blog post.
Figure 1. Silver Weekly Chart

Sin…
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Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 22 Сент.

your ability to analyse & your writer skills are top notch...as always.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Сент.

Metal_Mind yoooo bro, thanks:)

JuliaBF avatar
JuliaBF 23 Сент.

good article)))) well done!

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 23 Сент.

Thank you!! Useful information for me and traders))!

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Let's talk Silver

In my blog I've only been talking about gold and you can find some of my comments and if you what my view on gold you can read here: Gold - Next Move and here Gold Outlook.
First of all I just want to make it clear this is my long term view on silver and not trying to forecast the next $1-2 move. In this regard I'm going to bring to your attention 2 long term charts to back up my bullish view on silver. First chart represents spot NY silver weekly closing price from January 1975 through April 20…
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 16 Апр.

I thought for sure you'd say that the support was gonna hold and I'm thinking wow that's the first time our view point is different!  I missed my entry in GOLD yesterday by $3. Targeting $1050.  What target do you have for Gold?

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 Апр.

It's very hard to tell if current bottom level in gold will stay intact or if we're going to have another shake-out of weak hands, but I guess the extreme pain level would be below the psychological $1000 level, where the majority will give up on gold. However I'm only expecting a major move to the upside to start by the end of the year, as I'm expecting the current sell of from September 2011 top to complete a pi cycle of 3.14 years.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 16 Апр.

Initially I expected a breach of 1000 as well.. but I'm making the assumption that there would just be too many buyers at that level.  There's a triangle in play on the Gold chart as well.  At least that's how i'm viewing it.

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EUR/CHF forms descending triangle

On the daily chart, EUR / CHF form a descending triangle pattern that emerged since January with a strong support at 1.2135. This give us a bearish bias signal. Now we combine daily chart with ichimoku indicator, as we see in chart we can draw a mid term support at 1.2200. The thick cloud in may give us signal that price is not easy to break down, and we have strong suppor at 1.2135. I predict that the price will move in range 1.2135 - 1.2258 with mid support at 1.2200. price may consolidate in …
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