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Risk sentiment a bit better to start the week

Risk sentiment has improved a bit since late Friday bounce in the stock markets. USD/CAD spiked 80 pips after weak jobs report on that day but gave it all back and is currently trading below the pivotal 1.26 level. 1.25 is the initial support and 1.27 the first stronger resistance.
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CAD/CHF down reaching an important resistence area

Situation:
After the chf crash the price is in a range between two important support and resistence levels.
A resistence level has been hit, i'm expecting for the price to move lower, even if we had a retracement in the buyers direction.
Maybe another retest in the short term before a down move.
Expected rate: 0.7480
Weekly chart:
On the weekly chart i pointed out the main support and resistence levels
Daily chart:
On daily chart a possible scenario is described.
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Shuael avatar
Shuael 28 Dic

I used a wrong timeline, setted on the 20 of feb.

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AUD/CHF cant' break the resistence level

Situation:
Under the long term prospective, aud/chf pair is moving slowly in a range.
In the past weeks the price moved up with power, i expect it to continue and reach the previous highs.
I doubt tho that the price will break the resistence level pointed out on weekly and daily chart.
I expect the price to bounce from the resistence level.
Expected rate: 0.7700
Weekly chart:
Major support and resistence levels are pointe out
Daily chart:
Possible scenario is described
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Shuael avatar
Shuael 28 Dic

I used a wrong timeline, setted on the 20 of feb.

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AUD/CAD up to previous highs

Situation:
The price bounced 3 weeks ago from an important support level which hold the price for several time now and i expect it to continue to do so.
In the previous ocasions the price reacted heavly from that support level as it did this time around.
I expect the price to climb higher and reac privous highs:
Weekly chart:
On the weekly chart some important areas of support and resistence are pointed out.
Daily chart:
On the daily chart a possible scenario is described
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Shuael avatar
Shuael 28 Dic

I used a wrong timeline, setted on the 20 of feb.

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EURUSD

EURUSD, earlier today we went down into the blue box. Not surprising as this was a strong support zone, note the multiple bounces from it. We now have a new box, the red one.
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USD/CHF snaps back

USD/CHF bounced strongly off of October's resistance area near 0.985. Probably some range trading from here but the path of least resistance still seems to be to the upside in the medium term. As always, a lot depends on EUR/USD direction and risk sentiment.
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Aussie to continue its steady climb

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 in November has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline …
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al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, the FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended the week higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look soggy.

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UPDATE 9: The correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by the Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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UPDATE 10: RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.5%, which was widely expected. The bank highlighted soft labour market, slow wage growth and low inflation. It urged lenders to step up reforms to address risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. A dovish statement. Aussie dollar fell 20 pips immediately and another 20 pips in the first two hours after the release. 0.7550 (200 DMA, mid March consolidation) is the initial support before stronger one near 0.75 (100 DMA, March low). 0.7585 (March 28th low) is the first resistance.

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Will Aussie finally break to the upside?

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline and 2011 - …
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al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 6: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two rate hikes by Fed this year.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is the Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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UPDATE 8: Indecision in markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. AUD/USD rally looks like it's running out of steam but it may just be reaccumulation before another leg higher.

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UPDATE 10: Australian GDP came in much better than expected as the country avoided a technical recession by a wide margin. Despite that, Aussie has been looking soggy. The reason for that is U.S. dollar strength as Fed speakers ramped up probability of a March hike yesterday. U.S. president Trump addressed the Congress overnight and, even though he didn't reveal much of the details on reforms, was quite constructive. The pair didn't quite retest levels below 0.75 last month but did top out near 0.7750 and is about to finish fairly close to the prediction target.

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USD/JPY Targets Brexit Highs

The USD/JPY is finally trending up after a long bear market. After some Dollar positive comments at Jackson Hole the pair got a lift. We’re now trading 336 pips higher from the lows marked on August 26th.
Where can we look for a potential target? The average monthly range in this pair has been 520 pips. But that’s low to high, not open to close. A more conservative target would be in the 300 pips range.
On our chart above we see a level that qualifies. The pre-Brexit highs at 106.80 are importa…
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Clashing Trends in the EUR/JPY

We're having two contradicting trends develop in the EUR/JPY. On the shorter time-frame, a tentative bullish trend has developed in the past few days. See the 4h chart below. We're now up over 250 pips from the lows recorded last Friday.
But things are looking quite the opposite on the longer-term charts. Note the strong downward trend on the weekly chart below. Since peaking out at 149.78 in December of 2014, the EUR/JPY has been in a bearish trend. The low was hit at 109.48 this June, post-Bre…
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fxsurprise8 avatar

So far my forecast has been generally correct but prices are still far from my target. Let me explain. In September the EUR/JPY hit a high of 116.07 and a low of 112.07.

But those extremes don't tell the whole story. Most of the month the EUR/JPY spent in the middle of this range. We're currently quoted at 113.69, close to the 50% mark.

Unfortunately due to large selling on two days this month (September 20th and 21st) the neutral point has shifted somewhat lower and for the past week we've been drudging along in this 113-114 range. I will need the pair to rally to bring me close to target.

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