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Expectations for January

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 5 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #GBP #JPY #NZD
Pair Expectation, target value – maximum or minimum for the month
AUDUSD down, target: 0.7700-0.7600
EURUSD down, target: 1.1700-1.1800
USDCAD up, target: 1.1800-1.1900
GBPUSD up, target: 1.5700-1.5800
USDJPY down; Lower limit 115.00
The strongest currencies for the month of January seem to be USD and GBP, along with JPY. Expectations for the forthcoming rate cuts by RBNZ and RBA in the end of January and early February might exert downward pressure on AUD and NZD. Any rally in Canadian do…
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A few notes on AUD and the Australian economy

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 6 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Gdp #Interest Rates
The Australian dollar peaked in the early beginning of 2012 at the level of 1.11 USD. After almost two years of consolidation between in the range between 0.97 and 1.08 the trend down commenced in the spring of 2013. This development is rather befuddling, especially when compared to NZD that stayed in bullish mode over the same period of time. Considering that both currencies have the highest yields among developed nations such unusual dynamics for AUD is noticeable.
It looks that the AUD is go…
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The Australian Dollar – The Trend Might Continue

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 2 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Rba #Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the rates unchanged at 2.5% earlier this morning. In the accompanying statement the bank officials duly noted that the period of prolonged low interest rates is not over yet, albeit further rate cuts are not coming soon either.
The market seemed rather perplexed by these emanations – AUD spiked for a few minutes only to go down for the rest of the day. Indeed, the market participants still remember that according to “fundamentals” the “fair value” for AUD is 0…
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The Forthcoming RBA`s Interest Rate Decision

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 1 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #USD #Rba #Interest Rate
If one would be asked to single out the most important endogenous event that might define currency exchange rates for month to come one would answer unequivocally – interest rate decision by the central bank. The forthcoming rate decision by Reserve Bank of Australia is not an exclusion, even when the majority of market participants do not anticipate any changes to the current level of interest rates.
What has left to be dissected by market observers is the rhetoric, emanating from RBA`s offici…
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4 Comments
Stix avatar
Stix 2 Sep.

Best wishes, Speculo_ergo_sum ! :)

Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 2 Sep.

One thing that I know is that I won't be near the market.

speculo_ergo_sum avatar
speculo_ergo_sum 2 Sep.

neither was I:)

Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 2 Sep.

:)

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The RBA`s interest rate decision, trade balance and AUD

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 4 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Rba #Trade Balance
This Tuesday two important data sets are coming out in Australia – international trade balance and interest rate decision by RBA. Both might potentially define the exchange rate dynamics of AUD for the rest of August.
It is not very difficult to predict with great degree of confidence what the rate decision will be – the rate interests will remain the same, while accompanying rhetoric might be intent to forestall the further appreciation of AUD against its counterparts. This task will not be ha…
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