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EUR/USD nearing 38.2% of April - May decline

al_dcdemo Posted 7 June  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #38 2 Retracement #D1 Chart #Political Woes #Existential Fears #Monetary Policy Normalization
Market focus went from political woes in Italy and existential fears back to ECB and normalization of monetary policy as EUR/USD bounced from 1.15 and keeps grinding up. 1.185 area (includes 38.2% retracement of April - May decline) is where some resistance is likely to be encountered. 1.17 - 1.175 should now hold if bulls are to remain in control.
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USD/JPY to remain near current levels throughout June

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 109.25, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #38 2 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Sharp Fall #Monetary Policy Limits
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone which was holding it since late 2014. The decline has seen 100 week SMA, 2013 - 2014 trendli…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: There was little follow through after the sharp fall on NFP report earlier in the month but USD/JPY did make a new low and has continued to look heavy amid recent flight to safety. Having said that, lower tails on daily candles suggest a decent buying interest. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for today's evening and the BOJ's for tomorrow morning, the pair will likely remain range-bound today. Area between 105 and 106 (includes June and May lows and 200 WMA) shall protect the downside while 107 - 108 shall take care of the upticks.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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Is 110 - 115 the new range for USD/JPY?

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #38 2 Retracement #Record Long Position #Sharp Breakout
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. The decline has seen 100 week SMA, 2013 - 2014 trendlin…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 6: After consolidating for almost a week, USD/JPY appears to be breaking to the upside. Rumours of sales tax hike delay and weaker GDP print to come Wednesday morning are doing the rounds and may have contributed to the yen weakness. Area between 109.45 and 110, which includes 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing, is the immediate resistance with 50 DMA (currently 110.30) and 76.4% retracement (110.40) the two stronger levels above the big figure. 108.75 - 109.25 shall now hold as a support.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. Loonie, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. Cable on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Following through on Yellen-induced Friday gains, the dollar strengthened further against the yen overnight and in early European session. News about sales tax hike delay and lackluster retail sales report from Japan helped to support USD/JPY. The pair rallied more than 100 pips before stalling near the middle of the pre-BOJ range between 110.65 and 111.85. The range top is the first resistance level before 100 DMA and the broken 2013 - 2014 trendline. 109.75 - 110.25 shall hold in case of a deeper pullback.

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Kiwi lower on RBNZ rate cut

al_dcdemo Updated 11 June  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Rbnz #38 2 Retracement #Official Cash Rate
RBNZ (un)expectedly cut its Official Cash Rate overnight to 3.25% from 3.50%, citing risks to inflation and demand outlooks. It appears that the bank entered an easing cycle, although they've said that further decisions will be data dependant.
Kiwi gapped more than 150 pips as the data were released in the most illiquid time of the day. After an unconvincing bounce, the pair continued lower and is currently attempting to sustain a break below the big 0.70 level. Below there, the next stronger su…
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EURo surges ahead of the ECB meeting

al_dcdemo Posted 3 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #100 Dma #Weekly Resistance 2 #38 2 Retracement #61 8 Retracement #Daily Pivot Point #Monthly Pivot Point
Euro jumped 150 pips yesterday, after details of today's Draghi speech were released to the hedge fund community tick-up in CPI and in anticipation of a deal between Greece and its creditors.
The pair stalled ahead of 1.12 and 61.8% Retracement of May 15th to May 27th decline (1.1219). On the downside, support was found just above the broken Weekly Resistance 2 (1.1130), but the stronger may come in between 1.1075 and 1.1100 (100 DMA, Daily Pivot Point, 38.2% Retracement of yesterday's rally, Mo…
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USD/CAD will consolidate gains

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2375, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Reversal #Consolidation #Rally #Uptrend #38 2 Retracement #Strong Demand #Bullish Market
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear the stops below 1.20 level. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement shall offer further support ahead of 20 month SMA, should the pair continue lower.
Weekly chart:
After range support at 1.235…
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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: The week ahead is promising volatility as there are quite a few important macroeconomic data points on the calendar for the week ahead. From Canada we have: Manufacturing Sales, Wholesale Sales, (Core) CPI and (Core) Retail Sales. From US: FOMC meeting, (Core) CPI, Unemployment Claims, Building Permits. Support shall come in at 50 DMA and then at June 10th low. Initial resistance is seen in 1.2350 - 1.2400 band, with more at 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 7: It was a volatile week for the pair but, on net, it didn't get very far. Weekly range was 230 pips but the pair closed the week just around 40 pips below the opening levels. Dollar bulls were disappointed on Wednesday when FOMC gave no clear indication on when they may start raising rates and that sent the pair lower. There was some follow through on Thursday but the dip was bought into and the pair reversed from there sharply, leaving hammer on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 21 June

UPDATE 8: There's nothing of note from the Canada on the calendar for the week ahead, but we do get some important US macroeconomic updates: Existing Home Sales, (Core) Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims. The pair is trading near the middle of the six-month trading range that is getting a shape of a symmetric triangle. Pattern support is seen between 1.2100 and 1.2150. Initial resistance may come near 1.2375.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 9: The main action in the past week was in the Euro but the Loonie was far from forgotten. Despite that the weekly range was hardly worth 200 pips, the pair continued nice tradable wide swing uptrend that commenced last Thursday and topped out (seemingly) on Wednesday. The pair closed some 70 pips above the opening levels. Weekly candle is of range type and the direction is unclear at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 10: Oil is still consolidating in 57 - 62 range and the pair is doing the same in the middle of its own range between 1.1900 and 1.2850. However, this range can also be seen as a symmetrical triangle, which is generally a continuation pattern. On Monday, pattern support will come in near 1.2180 and resistance around 1.2450. These kind of patterns are usually broken in the last third and that could well happen in the week ahead.

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Kiwi to the lowest since 2011

al_dcdemo Updated 29 May  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Big Figure #38 2 Retracement #Anz Business Confidence
Kiwi broke below February low at 0.7176 yesterday and traded down to 0.7129, to the lowest in four years. Weaker than expected ANZ Business Confidence overnight didn't help it and the pair is hanging above the lows.
March 2011 low at 0.7113 is the first big level to watch before 0.70 big figure level and 38.2% retracement (of the 2011 to 2011 uptrend) near 0.6950.
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EURo relentless

al_dcdemo Posted 15 May  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Daily Low #Michigan Consumer Sentiment #Michigan Inflation Expectations #38 2 Retracement
After it looked like the Euro will pull back into the weekend and perhaps close near Daily Low, it then reversed sharply on the release of much weaker than expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. Michigan Inflation Expectations jumped to 2.9% from 2.6%, but the market shrugged that off. I suspect the pair would have rallied anyway, but perhaps not that strongly if the release had came out better.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 88.6 vs. 96.0 expected, 95.9 previous
Michigan Consumer Expectation…
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fxsurprise8 15 May

it;s going down on Monday.

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fxsurprise8 15 May

probably lol

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al_dcdemo 16 May

After recent action I wouldn't be surprised if it extends to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement) or even 1.1875 (2010 low). But as you have said, who knows. :)

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