Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 19 & were released Friday Jan 22.
HOLIDAYS & VOLATILITY DRIVE SPECULATIVE POSITIONING
• Changes in speculave posioning in aggregate appear subdued in the latest CFTC report covering the week through January 19th, perhaps re?ecng the MLK holiday on the 18th. The market’s aggregate long USD posion this week stood at USD27.3bn—more or less exactly the same as the prior week’s posion. Sll, some fairly large posioning shis were taking place below the surface as investors connued to shun riskier currencies and favour the JPY.
• Investors moved to trim short posioning in the EUR this week, reducing the net speculave bet against the EUR to a lile less than USD 19bn. We suspect that strong hints from ECB President Draghi Thursday that further policy accommodaon is likely in the next few weeks will boost speculave bets against the EUR again— especially if the FOMC messaging remains construcve at next week’s Fed policy meeng.
• Investors boosted net short CAD posioning through January 19th as the CAD’s losing start to 2016 connued. Posioning here should moderate, however, considering the CAD bounce and apparent turn in the CAD trend following the unchanged BoC policy decision Wednesday. Net CAD shorts have perhaps peaked out at 66.4k contracts this week, right on the most recent peak short of 67k contracts seen last July.
• Risk aversion helped de?ne posioning changes elsewhere; investors increased net bets against the AUD signi?cantly (less so versus the NZD) and increased defensive posioning in the JPY where the net long equates to the biggest bull bet since late 2012
Regards All.