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If any other country was threatening to default in 9 days the ratings agencies would have already issued a downgrade.At the very least, they should be issuing a negative creditwatch. In June, Fitch affirmed the US with a AAA-rating with a negative outlook. The reason for the negative outlook was uncertainty over prospect for additional deficit-reduction measures, near-term risks associated with expiration of federal appropriations authority and “in particular” timely increase in debt limit.
They haven’t released anything new since Oct 1 when they said that if the debt ceiling isn’t raised in a “timely manner” it will launch “a formal review of the AAA rating and likely lead to a downgrade.” If anything negative comes, it will probably be from Fitch.Moody’s is a joke. They moved the USA to a triple-A rating with a stable outlook in July, erasing the negative outlook. They didn’t even mention the debt limit in the release. Yesterday, they released a report saying that even a delay in raising the debt ceiling would not lead to a downgrade and hinted that even a default wouldn’t lead to a downgrade.
S&P, meanwhile, downgraded the US two years ago and is the only ratings agency being sued by the US over the housing credit disaster. I think we know what’s going on here but some action from ratings agencies could get Congress moving.
I would argue that any country with an artificial debt limit should never qualify for AAA status. Or as S&P said on Sept 30, “this sort of brinkmanship is the dominant reason the rating is no longer AAA.” More reasons to be scared here.