Open trading account 
15Nov2014
Unexpected strong EURUSD movement at the end of Friday (14 Oct)
Here I want to explain my point of view on it,
1. What about the news "Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)" acctually it was better then before - 89.4 points. But I assume the tactics of big players to move the EURUSD pair against the market accumulated shorts to cause massive stop outs of bears on a weak Friday's market. The news could work as a trigger only to stop out some players and to start accumulating LONG positions for others who initiated this movement.
2. By technical analisys we hit (re-newed) the strong daily level (88.19*) on USDX (see my img). I've made more detailed analysis of levels. Now I updated my previous post regarding USDX*. Here's the levels (from top):
Orange (monthly) - 97.57, 89.30, 86.06, 84.10, 80.86
Blue (weekly) - 89.51, 87.0, 85.43, 84.49, 82.95,
Green (daily) - 94.34, 90.57, 88.19, 86.74, 84.35, 82.87
3. As per my TS ("JWS") previous day (Thursday 13th ) was the end of EURUSD daily 2nd cycle. EURUSD accumulated the great disbalanes by the end of this cycle. A lot money of players (who were shorting) stuck on above levels. This could force the pair to move at the begining of next cycle (on 14th) which I expected. I increased my balance up to 79K thanks to this movement. Similar disbalances we can see many times. The last large one - The Crisis of 2008, when a huge amont of disbalanes were accumulated on the market. What happened after you know.
4. My prognosis. USDX squeezed between 88.19 and double** level (87.0 + 86.74)
We are in between 1st and 2nd daily cycle. And we still have potential to go to double strong level (89.30 + 89.51) if 88.19 will be broken*** on a daily basis. Then reverse for downtrend at the end of 2nd daily cycle - 1st scenario.
If 87.0 + 86.74 will be broken we can go to test 86.06, then comeback approx 50% of previous move by 2nd daily cycle timeline****. Then reverse for downtrend - 2nd scenario.
Less expected scenario if directly go down towards tripple** level (84.49 + 84.35 + 84.10)
Movement of USDX is right opposite to EURUSD because euro has almost 60 % of USDX value.
* - please note that quotes of USDX can be different from broker to broker
** - please note double or tripple levels can be the most strong
*** - be broken means - passed through and left behind
**** - please add days of weekend inbetween when counting final daily cycle timelines
P.S. As I wrote before in my previous posts - this month is very important for trend continuation. Or we will reverse here or will continue the previous trend.
Good luck, good trades!
FG_Trading
"Forex is a simple geometry"
Unexpected strong EURUSD movement at the end of Friday (14 Oct)
Here I want to explain my point of view on it,
1. What about the news "Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)" acctually it was better then before - 89.4 points. But I assume the tactics of big players to move the EURUSD pair against the market accumulated shorts to cause massive stop outs of bears on a weak Friday's market. The news could work as a trigger only to stop out some players and to start accumulating LONG positions for others who initiated this movement.
2. By technical analisys we hit (re-newed) the strong daily level (88.19*) on USDX (see my img). I've made more detailed analysis of levels. Now I updated my previous post regarding USDX*. Here's the levels (from top):
Orange (monthly) - 97.57, 89.30, 86.06, 84.10, 80.86
Blue (weekly) - 89.51, 87.0, 85.43, 84.49, 82.95,
Green (daily) - 94.34, 90.57, 88.19, 86.74, 84.35, 82.87
3. As per my TS ("JWS") previous day (Thursday 13th ) was the end of EURUSD daily 2nd cycle. EURUSD accumulated the great disbalanes by the end of this cycle. A lot money of players (who were shorting) stuck on above levels. This could force the pair to move at the begining of next cycle (on 14th) which I expected. I increased my balance up to 79K thanks to this movement. Similar disbalances we can see many times. The last large one - The Crisis of 2008, when a huge amont of disbalanes were accumulated on the market. What happened after you know.
4. My prognosis. USDX squeezed between 88.19 and double** level (87.0 + 86.74)
We are in between 1st and 2nd daily cycle. And we still have potential to go to double strong level (89.30 + 89.51) if 88.19 will be broken*** on a daily basis. Then reverse for downtrend at the end of 2nd daily cycle - 1st scenario.
If 87.0 + 86.74 will be broken we can go to test 86.06, then comeback approx 50% of previous move by 2nd daily cycle timeline****. Then reverse for downtrend - 2nd scenario.
Less expected scenario if directly go down towards tripple** level (84.49 + 84.35 + 84.10)
Movement of USDX is right opposite to EURUSD because euro has almost 60 % of USDX value.
* - please note that quotes of USDX can be different from broker to broker
** - please note double or tripple levels can be the most strong
*** - be broken means - passed through and left behind
**** - please add days of weekend inbetween when counting final daily cycle timelines
P.S. As I wrote before in my previous posts - this month is very important for trend continuation. Or we will reverse here or will continue the previous trend.
Good luck, good trades!
FG_Trading
"Forex is a simple geometry"
