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The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
The European six-month economic outlook recovered from 0.52, the lowest level since September 2013, to 0.55. However, poll respondents did not revise their expectations regarding the three-year index, and the reading stood unchanged at 0.60 in March.
Experts became less optimistic about the North American region as both the six-month and three-year expectations worsened slightly. The six-month outlook declined 0.01 to 0.68, while the three-year sentiment fell by 0.02 to 0.69, which is October 2012 low.
The Asia-Pacific economy is forecasted to expand in six-month time as the index grew by 0.04 to 0.70 in March. However, the three-year prospects became less attractive compared to the February poll’s results as the experts’ three-year outlook worsened to 0.74.
Figure 4 presents the business cycle and its phases: expansion (real GDP is increasing), peak (real GDP stops increasing and begins decreasing), contraction or recession (real GDP is decreasing), and trough (real GDP stops decreasing and begins increasing).
Majority of poll respondents consider the European six-month and three-year EDS to reach ‘Expansion’ phase, while only eleven believe economy will be in recession six months from now and eight—three years from now.
Twenty-seven experts anticipate that the North American region will experience economic expansion by October 2014 and only three believe the economy will slow down. Respondents are less optimistic about North-American three-year EDS as twenty-four consider region’s economy to expand, while six expect it to reach recession.
The Asia-Pacific economy is forecasted to grow both in the short and long term by vast majority of experts.
Figure 9 presents a discrepancy in views on the economic outlook among local and foreign experts. March poll results reveal that respondents from Europe are more optimistic about the local economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues. The same is true for the Asia-Pacific region.
Europe: Local experts are more optimistic about the European six-month and three-year economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues, with a discrepancy in views of 0.4 for both time horizons.
North America: Local respondents from North America are more optimistic about the regional six-month outlook (0.73 vs. 0.68), however the discrepancy in views reaches –0.02 when it comes to the three-year growth prospects.
Asia-Pacific: Local respondents are more optimistic (0.78) about the Asia-Pacific six-month economic prospects compared to foreign experts (0.66). The same tendency applies for longer time span, as the discrepancy in views sheds to 0.13 for the three-year economic outlook.
Video version will be available here.
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
The European six-month economic outlook recovered from 0.52, the lowest level since September 2013, to 0.55. However, poll respondents did not revise their expectations regarding the three-year index, and the reading stood unchanged at 0.60 in March.
Experts became less optimistic about the North American region as both the six-month and three-year expectations worsened slightly. The six-month outlook declined 0.01 to 0.68, while the three-year sentiment fell by 0.02 to 0.69, which is October 2012 low.
The Asia-Pacific economy is forecasted to expand in six-month time as the index grew by 0.04 to 0.70 in March. However, the three-year prospects became less attractive compared to the February poll’s results as the experts’ three-year outlook worsened to 0.74.
Figure 4 presents the business cycle and its phases: expansion (real GDP is increasing), peak (real GDP stops increasing and begins decreasing), contraction or recession (real GDP is decreasing), and trough (real GDP stops decreasing and begins increasing).
Majority of poll respondents consider the European six-month and three-year EDS to reach ‘Expansion’ phase, while only eleven believe economy will be in recession six months from now and eight—three years from now.
Twenty-seven experts anticipate that the North American region will experience economic expansion by October 2014 and only three believe the economy will slow down. Respondents are less optimistic about North-American three-year EDS as twenty-four consider region’s economy to expand, while six expect it to reach recession.
The Asia-Pacific economy is forecasted to grow both in the short and long term by vast majority of experts.
Figure 9 presents a discrepancy in views on the economic outlook among local and foreign experts. March poll results reveal that respondents from Europe are more optimistic about the local economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues. The same is true for the Asia-Pacific region.
Europe: Local experts are more optimistic about the European six-month and three-year economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues, with a discrepancy in views of 0.4 for both time horizons.
North America: Local respondents from North America are more optimistic about the regional six-month outlook (0.73 vs. 0.68), however the discrepancy in views reaches –0.02 when it comes to the three-year growth prospects.
Asia-Pacific: Local respondents are more optimistic (0.78) about the Asia-Pacific six-month economic prospects compared to foreign experts (0.66). The same tendency applies for longer time span, as the discrepancy in views sheds to 0.13 for the three-year economic outlook.
