Retail Sales


Definition:

Retail Sales belongs to the industry and sector-based statistics. This type of indicator is collected by both government
agencies and private sector groups. The activity they track is more limited, and can have a close correlation to the broader indexes, generating considerable trading interest.

This indicator measures the total sales of goods by all retail establishments in the US, excluding sales of services such as health care and education. Sales are categorized by type of establishment, not by type of good.

The Census Bureau surveys hundreds of various sized firms and business offering some type of retail trade. Every month the data is released providing feedback on the percent change from the previous month data. A negative number indicates that
sales decreased from the previous months' sales.

The report is published without adjusting for inflation, that is, in nominal Dollars. So to get a true measure of changes in retails sales spending, you must adjust accordingly. However, the results are adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences between the months of the year.

As a general rule, watch not only for the numerical value of an indicator, but also for its forecast value. If your leading indicators are pointing in a different direction than the anticipated results, expect a greater impact on the market.

The value of the indicator is considered important if it presents new information. For example, if the trade balance and retail sales point to a slowdown in the economical growth, but the expected GDP does not, you should expect a surprise reaction in the market because the final GDP release will be instrumental to drawing new conclusions which couldn't be drawn with the previous release.

The fastest moves usually occur when an unexpected information is released. This is key to the short-term fundamental traders, also called news-traders, because what drives the currency market in many cases is the anticipation of an economic
condition rather than the condition itself. To put you ahead of this situation, you can watch the personal income data, which is a
leading indicator to retail sales.

Released by: US Department of Commerce, Census Bureau.

Frequency: The data is very timely because the retail sales advance estimate is released during the second week of the month for the immediately preceding month. It's also one of the first reports available each month that tracks retail spending
patterns.


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