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There is a lot of emotion right now when it comes to DBK shares. And also this will surely be the main topic to watch all the way through this trading week. As stated by the AFP report, the 14bn $ penalty could be lowered by about 2/3 (even to 5.4bn $), changing the situation drastically.
The miss-seling fine was to be equal to 14bn $, which was to be highest amongst banks. Due to the bankrupcy risk, as many experts stated, Deutsche Bank AG was at its record historical lows. In my opinion, bankrupcy of that scale could had posted a threat for a whole banking sector, therefore as a result - whole market will be influenced by the DB plot unfolding.
Personally, it all seemed a bit of political game between EU and US - Americans trying to make Germany pay the most, then Germany putting ultimatum, specifically DB likely goes bankrupt (which could result in crisis worse than Lehman times) cause Germany will not save the bank or USA lowers the penalty. I believe it was not quite US's goal to crash the system, especially right before elections and during the present unstable global situation, so they've chosen to have mercy on DBK instead.
We have seen the influence quite broadly across the world. Great and fast movement on EURUSD pair, and probably a huge intervention on EURCHF by central banks, that likely did its job by frightening any potential EURCHF 'SELL' speculators even before it was close to the standard 1.07 peg.
Where DBK will open on tuesday (monday is a day free for German stocks due to Unification Day) is a good question, but it is almost certain, that this will be one of the biggest movers in the close future. Anyway, there is a lot of space upwards for DBK at the present moment. Apart from DBK, all the other banks should get a slighter or greater boost this week if nothing changes to worse. Together with banks, all indices losses will be limited this week, or prices will rise higher.
What I am reckoning now: have we actually broken from the growth/crisis cycle for good, starting from the 'small' DB issue? Or is it rather a postponing of the inevitable?
What is quite sure, is that risk-on and risk-off sentiment that drives markets more than anything else now will have one extra variable - what the fine for DBK will be equal to and how will the banking sector manage to carry on, according to a probable end of help from the goverment trend being started. Certainly it is not the only hot topic for the market now, yet it ought not to be underestimated.Thinking of technicals: 14-15EUR should be easily an achievable target for DBK this week, or even on tuesday. I believe this level will also be a long term support. Apart from this - due to investors emotional reaction to quite a great piece of news - initial reaction going up to 20EUR or above should not be of any suprise. Suggested tactics: look for any occasions for going long& observe price behaviour on historical resistances.
Seems this week is the time for investors that have BULLS for the market
The miss-seling fine was to be equal to 14bn $, which was to be highest amongst banks. Due to the bankrupcy risk, as many experts stated, Deutsche Bank AG was at its record historical lows. In my opinion, bankrupcy of that scale could had posted a threat for a whole banking sector, therefore as a result - whole market will be influenced by the DB plot unfolding.
Personally, it all seemed a bit of political game between EU and US - Americans trying to make Germany pay the most, then Germany putting ultimatum, specifically DB likely goes bankrupt (which could result in crisis worse than Lehman times) cause Germany will not save the bank or USA lowers the penalty. I believe it was not quite US's goal to crash the system, especially right before elections and during the present unstable global situation, so they've chosen to have mercy on DBK instead.
We have seen the influence quite broadly across the world. Great and fast movement on EURUSD pair, and probably a huge intervention on EURCHF by central banks, that likely did its job by frightening any potential EURCHF 'SELL' speculators even before it was close to the standard 1.07 peg.
Where DBK will open on tuesday (monday is a day free for German stocks due to Unification Day) is a good question, but it is almost certain, that this will be one of the biggest movers in the close future. Anyway, there is a lot of space upwards for DBK at the present moment. Apart from DBK, all the other banks should get a slighter or greater boost this week if nothing changes to worse. Together with banks, all indices losses will be limited this week, or prices will rise higher.
What I am reckoning now: have we actually broken from the growth/crisis cycle for good, starting from the 'small' DB issue? Or is it rather a postponing of the inevitable?
What is quite sure, is that risk-on and risk-off sentiment that drives markets more than anything else now will have one extra variable - what the fine for DBK will be equal to and how will the banking sector manage to carry on, according to a probable end of help from the goverment trend being started. Certainly it is not the only hot topic for the market now, yet it ought not to be underestimated.Thinking of technicals: 14-15EUR should be easily an achievable target for DBK this week, or even on tuesday. I believe this level will also be a long term support. Apart from this - due to investors emotional reaction to quite a great piece of news - initial reaction going up to 20EUR or above should not be of any suprise. Suggested tactics: look for any occasions for going long& observe price behaviour on historical resistances.
Seems this week is the time for investors that have BULLS for the market