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Long-term situation in the market supports NZD shorts. The RBNZ monetary policy meeting on Wednesday (27 Jan) is important to define the near-term destimy of the currency. The Q4 CPI came in much weaker than expected. Quarterly CPI fell by 0.5% (-0.2% expected), with annual CPI being 0.1%, which is far lower than the central bank’s forecast of 0.4% and well below the RBNZ’s 1-3% inflation target.
Slowing global growth and a further drop in oil prices hints that the Bank will maintain its easing bias in the coming announcement. It's only a question whetehr the RBNZ is aggressive by cutting the rate this time or postpones a further cut until later this year. In the December MPR, the RBNZ indicated risks of a further rate cut in the second half of this year. The next MPR is due in March, therefore the RBNZ step is not straightforward this time.
NZD/USD: A bullish candle on 21 Jan looks like a short-term profit taking and an attempt of the market makers to load more passengers in the longs before crumbling the currency
. For the trade strategy I would let the price higher and fade the move near 0.661. The crucial point will happen on the day of the RBNZ CPI announcement. I would expect the price to fall to 0.625 and then to the 2015 lows.
Slowing global growth and a further drop in oil prices hints that the Bank will maintain its easing bias in the coming announcement. It's only a question whetehr the RBNZ is aggressive by cutting the rate this time or postpones a further cut until later this year. In the December MPR, the RBNZ indicated risks of a further rate cut in the second half of this year. The next MPR is due in March, therefore the RBNZ step is not straightforward this time.
NZD/USD: A bullish candle on 21 Jan looks like a short-term profit taking and an attempt of the market makers to load more passengers in the longs before crumbling the currency
. For the trade strategy I would let the price higher and fade the move near 0.661. The crucial point will happen on the day of the RBNZ CPI announcement. I would expect the price to fall to 0.625 and then to the 2015 lows. 