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he Bank of Japan’s latest meeting delivered few surprises and hence mostly reaffirmed what the market knew already. The Bank left its monetary stimulus unchanged at a pace of 60-70 trillion yen a year. This has led to 10-year yields on Japanese Government Bonds dropping t0.54%.The Bank’s forecast that inflation would reach 1.9% during the year starting in April 2015 was unchanged from its previous meeting. This meant that the chances of additional stimulus during the year have diminished. Some investors have sold the yen in anticipation of such additional stimulus but their expectations are looking less likely to materialize in the short-term. Following a sharp down move during 2013, the yen has gained this year, rising 3.4% against the dollar and 4.8% against the euro.The Bank of Japan did trim its forecast for GDP growth for the year that started in April. The BoJ is now predicting growth of 1% compared to 1.1% previously. The Bank’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained upbeat that an economic slowdown due to the sales tax increase back in April would prove temporary and will not derail the country’s economic recovery.Some economists are more skeptical in that business investment in terms of machinery orders was down sharply during May, wage increases are not catching up with inflation and exports are no longer receiving a boost due to a weaker yen. So it will be interesting to watch if the economy recovers from the sales tax increase of the second quarter or if there is longer-lasting damage from that action.On balance, there appear to be some downside risks for the Japanese economy, but unless they materialize, it will be difficult to argue for additional monetary stimulus. In addition, any weakness present in economic data following the April tax hike (with the exception of exports) will be blamed on the tax increase. This makes it difficult to get a clear picture on the underlying strength of the Japanese economy and data from the third quarter will be more valuable in that respect.The dollar dropped slightly against the Japanese currency from 101.59 to 101.55 in the minutes that followed the announcements out of the Bank of Japan. The lack of additional stimulus for now will likely keep supporting the yen, which has been managing well so far this year. In order for the yen to weaken, it appears that appreciably weaker economic data are needed – preferably data that is not close to the April sales tax increase date.
