The NZD has been selling off for the last few weeks after the RBNZ decided to put rate hikes on hold.

We've seen some bulls stepping in and showing interest just above the 8400 level. Last week the price was capped by the 8505 area. The chart below provides some further insight


NZDUSD 4H Chart


Here are some reasons the price is was capped at that area

  1. Seller's coming in at the top of the channel
  2. 76.4% Fib Retracement of the last leg down (8535-8408)
  3. Daily 200 SMA @8505


The Kiwi will need to breach that key 8505 level for further upside. The 200 SMA is notorious for upholding price, but a breach of it is certainly not a good sign. A rejection from the downside is even worst. The channel play is most likely not as important in the longer term, rather an area for scalpers.

I would really like to see price breach through that level before building a bullish position on a pull back this week.
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