Since not only a new month has started, but we're into a new year, the best way to asserts the probability of where the market is likely to be heading in this month is for us to look at the seasonality patterns. The seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.

You can find more details how this seasonal patterns affect the exchange rate and more importantly how to correctly use them in your trading activity in one of my articles here:Seasonal Cycles in FX Trading

This seasonality cycles will only give you the tendency of an particular currency pair to bottom or top or rally or fall, at certain point in time. Going forward we're going to analyse what are the November seasonal patterns in FX market.

  • Euro January Seasonal Pattern

January has been the worst month on average over the past 20 years for the Euro, averaging -1.59%. The bearish outlook is also supported by the fact that over the past 20 years the beginning of the year tends to be a bullish time for the US Dollar. From this seasonality we can see that this bearishness extends all the way through February.

  • GBP November Seasonal Pattern

The same like EURO, GBP tends to exhibit a bearish pattern during this time of the year. However we can find two instances of bullish episodes during the middle of the month and by the end of the month. On average over the past 20 years GBP/USD has seen a loss of -1.11%.

  • AUD November Seasonal Pattern
The aussie has shown little tendency for a clear direction, either bullish or bearish, in the beginning of the year. The seasonality cycles for AUD are more neutral in January.

  • Yen November Seasonal Pattern
Since BOJ has started the massive QE program we can see this seasonality patterns have reversed and usually as we enter the autumn season JPY is weakening not straightening as the seasonality may suggest. However during the beginning of the year it seems the pattern has respected the seasonality tendencies and JPY has found a bid.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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