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This analysis has been posted in Technical Analysis Contest as well and it can been found here: AUD/USD Rectangle Pattern Projects 0.9800
Aussie has been moving for the most part of this summer in a rectangle pattern(see Figure 1) which project a target of 0.9800 once we have a break and a close below the support level of 0.9200. If we measure the range between the 0.9500 round number and resistance level and 0.8200 support level we have an 300 pip range which projected to the upside gives us the 0.9800 target level.
Also based on Elliott Wave since beginning of last year (see Figure 2) aussie has completed a five wave cycle to the downside and right now is correcting that cycle which is still in the earlier stage as we only manage to complete only wave A and B, with wave C expecting to develop.
Only after wave C is completed we can take in consideration any significant downside movement, until than the upside remains favorable. In Figure 2 is the AUD/USD daily chart which shows the Elliott Wave count and future projections and how this view stands with the overall trend.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
Aussie has been moving for the most part of this summer in a rectangle pattern(see Figure 1) which project a target of 0.9800 once we have a break and a close below the support level of 0.9200. If we measure the range between the 0.9500 round number and resistance level and 0.8200 support level we have an 300 pip range which projected to the upside gives us the 0.9800 target level.
Figure 1. Aussie Daily Chart
Also based on Elliott Wave since beginning of last year (see Figure 2) aussie has completed a five wave cycle to the downside and right now is correcting that cycle which is still in the earlier stage as we only manage to complete only wave A and B, with wave C expecting to develop.
Only after wave C is completed we can take in consideration any significant downside movement, until than the upside remains favorable. In Figure 2 is the AUD/USD daily chart which shows the Elliott Wave count and future projections and how this view stands with the overall trend.
Figure 2. Aussie Elliott Wave count.
Based on Elliott wave count analysis and based on the Rectangle patter projection we should expect an exchange rate for AUD/USD of 0.9462 for 1st of October.Best Regards,
Daytrader21
