Open trading account
A week full of data coming from America issued a first ruling, that of a weak dollar that is becoming increasingly popular especially after the statement much to dove President Yellen. It will need to understand if we are faced with unwanted choices (likely) or induced by some form of concern identified in the sudden monetary policy operational arm. It goes without saying that the market has postponed the date later in the year as possible tweaking the interest rates and this has opened the door to carry traders wishing to buy back high-yield assets, emerging in the first place. Possible that the Fed wants to weaken the exchange rate to facilitate a rebalancing in the emerging world, but also to have the right scope for the future rise in interest rates. A bill is from 1.05, a score to 1.20. And as we will see this possibility technically you could open. Returning to the real economy the American macro data this week will be focused on the day April 4 (factory orders and durable goods orders), April 5 (trade balance and ISM services), but above 6 April when the minutes will be published of ' last Fed meeting. Note more color but that could be a source of interpretation by the market, the conference on 7 April when they will meet the last four Fed presidents, Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan and Volcker.
The usual passive Europe
Draghi has not had time to announce QE2 immediately have started a series of copious sales on the dollar can bring back the change in area 1.14. All hay in the barn for deflation plus in an interest rate environment that does not seem to incur large room for maneuver. The situation is analogous to that of Japan, and this does not therefore rule out a flattening of the European yield curve in the coming weeks. Among the macro data releases, European unemployment April 4, German factory orders on April 5, the day will come when even European data PMI and retail sales. Closes April 6 German industrial production.
Trade of the week
The dollar fell across the board last week but the value of some commodity currencies you notice a strange divergent behavior. For example AUDUSD continued its climb (and next week attention to the monetary policy meeting scheduled for April 5), while USDCAD moved up, a sign of weakness of the Canadian dollar coincided with the retracement of the price of oil. Interestingly, the closing week (and month) came still above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upside, a potential double dip if added to the bottom of mid-March. The key resistance barrier is the moving average of 20 days of 1319 after which the focus will be 1:33. Precisely the overcoming of 1.3190 would suggest the long with target 1.365 / 1.37. The unemployment data on Friday, April 8 could be a good catalyst.
The usual passive Europe
Draghi has not had time to announce QE2 immediately have started a series of copious sales on the dollar can bring back the change in area 1.14. All hay in the barn for deflation plus in an interest rate environment that does not seem to incur large room for maneuver. The situation is analogous to that of Japan, and this does not therefore rule out a flattening of the European yield curve in the coming weeks. Among the macro data releases, European unemployment April 4, German factory orders on April 5, the day will come when even European data PMI and retail sales. Closes April 6 German industrial production.
Trade of the week
The dollar fell across the board last week but the value of some commodity currencies you notice a strange divergent behavior. For example AUDUSD continued its climb (and next week attention to the monetary policy meeting scheduled for April 5), while USDCAD moved up, a sign of weakness of the Canadian dollar coincided with the retracement of the price of oil. Interestingly, the closing week (and month) came still above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upside, a potential double dip if added to the bottom of mid-March. The key resistance barrier is the moving average of 20 days of 1319 after which the focus will be 1:33. Precisely the overcoming of 1.3190 would suggest the long with target 1.365 / 1.37. The unemployment data on Friday, April 8 could be a good catalyst.
