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The main risk event of the week ahead will be definitely the FOMC minutes. Previous meeting came out pretty much in line with market expectation with Yellen making the case that rates are going to stay low for a considerable time after QE ends in Q4. But lets not forget her comments from few months ago where she explicitly said that rates are going to go higher "6 months after QE ends" but this is just a standard talking from CB, this double talking makes the market not be skewed in just one side of the market.
Although the market is pricing in the first rate hike for the second half of 2015 not everyone from Fed policymakers are comfortable with waiting too long before deciding to rates rates. Don't forget that market move ahead in expectation of any kind of hint that rates make go higher sooner rather than later so any move in that direction will give a lift to the US dollar. If you want to hear more about my view on the timing of this trade I'll suggest to read my article: the Case for a Multi-year USD Bullish Trend where I outlined few reason why we will see this trend starting only from next year.
Other thing i'll keep an eye on is the Aussie Unemployment rate, and this is mainly because or recent RBA's Stevens comments that "AUD is overvalued, and not by a few cents” and also the fact that RBA has opened the door for rates cut after the Australia’s trade deficit has widened.
Wish you all a good trading week.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
