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GBP/USD closed the year firmly, after a long rally started last july,confirming the clearing of the resistance of 2013 high at 1.6380.We see this new year beginning with a test of this level followinga clear candlestick reversal pattern. So from now, where to go ?Weakness below 1.6380 would surely show further decline showing the start ofa down cycle. Besides, January has rarely been good for the sterling.January 2013 showed a similar pattern leading to a multi month decline.History does not repeat itself, but still.... keep an eye on it.Apart from this technical pattern, fundamental have not changeand we see no reason why GBP should not keep going north.Surely the safest trade is not to play GBP long against USD, but a clear advanceoff the last year high support, that invalidates the reversal pattern,would give potential in GBPNZD, GBPCAD and GBPJPY longs.
