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The new month began with the US dollar weakening against the euro, the sterling pound and the yen.To put this in a better context notice that: EUR/USD closed this week at 1.1283 vs 1.1180 last week; GBP/USD closed this week at 1.2889 vs 1.2803 last week; and USD/JPY closed this week at 110.37 vs 111.32 last week.
The US dollar lost almost 100 pips in each of these three currency pairs since last week close.
The main factor for this previous slump was May NFP data reported yesterday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.3% from previous 4.4% in what is a new multi-year low.
NFP data growth fell to 138K well below 185K forecast. April NFP data was shaved 37K to 174K from first reported 211K.
Monthly average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in May, though April’s data was revised lower to 0.2% from initially reported 0.3% rise. This places average hourly earnings YoY at 2.5%.
This previous report took off some of the bright spot seen across the US job market performance year to date. Though wage increase will likely resume trending higher in a couple of months. An article by Andrea Ricci and Lucia Mutikani (Thomson Reuters) noticed that:
There is growing anecdotal evidence of companies struggling to find qualified workers. The Fed in its Beige Book on Wednesday said a manufacturing firm in the Chicago district reported raising wages for unskilled laborers by 10 percent to attract better-quality workers and retain its workforce.
The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
Despite this unspectacular NFP report, market participants are still expecting the Fed to deliver its second hike this year within two weeks. CME FedWatch Tool implies a 94.6% chance of a Fed hike on June 14.
The Dow Jones fixed a new record by breaking the 21,200 mark. This was fueled by political actions ranging from the US withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty and related controls on emissions.
I’ve been once shorting the Dow and I burned my equity twice. President Trump uses a regular expression when speaking such as: “believe me”; I want to use his expression stating that: I no longer know where and when the Dow will stop rising, “believe me”!
Polls are tightening in the UK as the election day comes closer. Labour continue to narrow the gap on the Conservatives, with the General Election's latest polls and odds showing that Theresa May may not actually win many more seats.
Latest polling averages on June 1 sets Conservatives with 43.2%, Labour with 36.9%, Liberal Democrats with 8.1% and UKIP with 3.8%. This contrasts with polling averages two weeks ago, on May 15, when Conservatives gathered 47.7%, Labour with 30.3%, Liberal Democrats with 8.4% and UKIP with 4.9%.
I’ve finished the week with no open positions and I took profit with two short GBP/USD positions.
There is also action today in the UK besides political campaigning. It's the 2017 Champions League final, the 62nd European Cup final or 25th since it was renamed the Champions League.
It's a repeat of the 1998 final between Spain's Real Madrid and Italy's Juventus. At the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
Zidane searches his second consecutive Champions League win as a coach. And looks like destiny, that he might accomplish it by defeating the team that he represented before moving to Real Madrid as a player.
Ronaldo is also looking for another record. If he wins the competition it will be his fourth Champion League win.
Though, Juventus is a well-balanced team. Allegri’s Juventus is a very disciplined squad with two experienced central defenders. In the midfield, there is the creativity of Dybala and forward on the pitch, the striker Higuaín won’t need too much opportunities for scoring.
If Juventus lose today, the Italian team will equal the record for the most consecutive final defeats, currently held by Benfica. I’m a Benfica fan and supporter and “believe me”, it was hard for me to watch Benfica losing two consecutive Europa League finals in 2013 and 2014 against Chelsea and Sevilla, respectively.
If Real wins it will mark its 12th victory in the competition, widening the record of wins that it already holds.
But, in fairness I think that Juventus’ goalkeeper, Buffon deserves to be a winner of this competition. He said in an interview before the match:
I don't look at the Champions League as the trophy that evades me - but, yes, it is a big dream for me to win it.
