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USDJPYis looking decidedly dodgy as it hovers around 110.00Where are all the dollar bulls hiding? If I was at a football match I'd be singing, "and it's all gone quiet over there" to them.
Ok, I'll concede that most of the calls are for year end or 12m forecasts and we know that plenty can happen in that time. What we do have now are players now thinking that 110 may be breached.
Deutsche Bank have been one banging that drum recently. There's a couple more coming out the woodwork too.
FPG Securities says that the level may break as BOJ intervention is unlikely anytime soon. They reckon the drop is due to specs testing the downside and that a break may go down to 109 before gradually rising to 115 into the year end.
UOB is unsure whether the downward momentum can continue but that if 112 cannot be retaken in the next couple of days, the downside pressure will continue.
The 110.00 level is a biggie psychologically. It's not a level to be underestimated. A break will have the market talking about the even bigger 100 number. At the moment it's putting up a stiff fight but we'll need to see the price move away from here pretty quickly or the pressure will remain.
USDJPY weekly chart
A break could potentially be pretty violent, and it may push down to the 38.2 fib of the 2011 low swing at 106.63. If it is violent, that's when the intervention talk will start growing.
For the here and now, a long from just above 110 looks enticing, though I would have liked to have got in on the first move. The 61.8 fib of the Feb 2014 swing up is at 110.33 and that looks to have helped in marking support on this move. Resistance will be building now at 111.00.
Lots in the balance. The level is one I've pinned as being the lower end of the 2015 range, and ranges need to develop, so there's some interesting sessions ahead.
Author: Ryan Littlestone
Ok, I'll concede that most of the calls are for year end or 12m forecasts and we know that plenty can happen in that time. What we do have now are players now thinking that 110 may be breached.
Deutsche Bank have been one banging that drum recently. There's a couple more coming out the woodwork too.
FPG Securities says that the level may break as BOJ intervention is unlikely anytime soon. They reckon the drop is due to specs testing the downside and that a break may go down to 109 before gradually rising to 115 into the year end.
UOB is unsure whether the downward momentum can continue but that if 112 cannot be retaken in the next couple of days, the downside pressure will continue.
The 110.00 level is a biggie psychologically. It's not a level to be underestimated. A break will have the market talking about the even bigger 100 number. At the moment it's putting up a stiff fight but we'll need to see the price move away from here pretty quickly or the pressure will remain.
USDJPY weekly chart
A break could potentially be pretty violent, and it may push down to the 38.2 fib of the 2011 low swing at 106.63. If it is violent, that's when the intervention talk will start growing.
For the here and now, a long from just above 110 looks enticing, though I would have liked to have got in on the first move. The 61.8 fib of the Feb 2014 swing up is at 110.33 and that looks to have helped in marking support on this move. Resistance will be building now at 111.00.
Lots in the balance. The level is one I've pinned as being the lower end of the 2015 range, and ranges need to develop, so there's some interesting sessions ahead.
Author: Ryan Littlestone
