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Grexit or may just Greece default remain the most important trigger of FX volatility in the coming week. The ongoing negotiation between Brussels and Greece are just crazy and I wouldn't be surprised if they will extend again the deadline for the bailout which expire on 30 Jun. I'm not expecting anything new on the Monday's summit, and that should be the case if you take in consideration how things unfolded so far.
However all this uncertainty has failed to produce any meaningless moves in the FX market as EUR/USD exchange rate have been pretty stable. But this can change in a second if investor confidence is put to the test for longer periods of time and it remains to be seen if current crisis will trigger a global risk aversion environment or either will remain just a EUR-centric development.
First day of the week it may set the tone for the markets not just because we have the EU Summit on Greece but given the increasing outflow of Greece deposits there is a high chance that the Greek banks will not open on Monday despite the fact the ECB increased the ELA threshold(emergency liquidity assistance) for the Greek banks.
If you're asking me I have no idea if either we're going to have a last minute agreement or on the on the opposite spectrum we're going to face a Grexit, however what we can do is to play with the probabilities and right now the probabilities are stacked against Greece as they are running out of time.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
However all this uncertainty has failed to produce any meaningless moves in the FX market as EUR/USD exchange rate have been pretty stable. But this can change in a second if investor confidence is put to the test for longer periods of time and it remains to be seen if current crisis will trigger a global risk aversion environment or either will remain just a EUR-centric development.
First day of the week it may set the tone for the markets not just because we have the EU Summit on Greece but given the increasing outflow of Greece deposits there is a high chance that the Greek banks will not open on Monday despite the fact the ECB increased the ELA threshold(emergency liquidity assistance) for the Greek banks.
If you're asking me I have no idea if either we're going to have a last minute agreement or on the on the opposite spectrum we're going to face a Grexit, however what we can do is to play with the probabilities and right now the probabilities are stacked against Greece as they are running out of time.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
