Canadian dollar convincingly broke above 1.25 yesterday, after weaker than expected trade data. The main driver, however, has been repricing of excessive rate hike expectations after BOC expressed concern about currency strength and signaled a pause in tightening cycle.

USD/CAD so far rose more than 500 pips from the low set near 1.2050 in September. Pullbacks have been shallow. 100 DMA is the initial target before late August high and then 38.2% retracement of the May - September downswing. 1.2450 - 1.25 should hold while uptrend continues.

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