Since beginning of the year I've been a perma bear on this pair but the recent price structure has made me change my mind and accept that my timing was wrong. I say "my timing" because I still see it falling but not just yet, for now we're in a big range and as major risk events happen around the world we will see this pair bouncing up and down. So because of this I've decided to play the market both ways and look for signs of topping pattern and only when the market dictate so only than to go short, easier said than done.

  • Figure 1. EUR/USD 1h and Daily Chart.

In Figure 1 you can see may recent long trade, but unfortunately I've mismanaged and got stopped out with a minor loss as I've moved my SL to soon. the reason why I entered a long position was because I was targeting the stops above current congestion zone, see second figure. If you look over the daily chart for the past several days we're moving in a tight congestion zone and the current price structure suggest the market is heavy short with the stops accumulated just above the resistance zone.

If you want to find more about this technique of stop hunting I've wrote an extensive article which can be found here: Forex Stop Hunting

Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
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