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Gold was trading to the downside quite nicely over the last few weeks, after we managed to put in place a top around $1300 level, this level was suggested as a possible top on my last update about Gold which you can find it here: Gold Down- Channel
Despite all the geopolitical tension, the Greece debt crisis, ECB QE programme and many other factors, Gold couldn't find a bid in the market and that's reason enough to conclude that the current bearish trend is still reinforcing itself and Gold is not ready for prime time, quite contrary, Gold still needs to move lower and shakeout the weak hands before reversing the current cycle. Tops are made on good news and bottoms are made on bad news.
As you see, you really have to understand the business cycle we're trading into and the deflationary pressures in the commodity market are making a strong case to keep the pressure still going on Gold. And with the general dollar strength across the board the picture doesn't look that good for Gold. The dollar has been on a quite strong ride and even thought we have moved quite a lot to the upside the dollar is just warming up for what is coming. The magnitude and the speed of dollar rally will be so destructive that several emerging markets will have to default on it's debts. When that will happen Gold will start shining again. And at first the market will get confused as the Gold will raise in tandem with the dollar and that will prevent Gold move to get out of hand, which is a good sign as it will keep out of the market many investors, which later will turn their eyes back on Gold and reinforce the up move.
Figure 1. Gold Weekly Chart.
Technically speaking we are at a major juncture point as we're currently retesting the major trend-line that connects the lows from the beginning of the secular Gold bull market. IMHO it's only a matter of time until we break that TL but the real sell of will only come during the summer as usually this seasonality pattern is quite strong for Gold especially during the last few years.Hopefully this will bring us closer to my final low projection which is around the $900 level. From around this level I'm expecting the market to develop the next major swing low point and propel Gold towards new historical major highs. However in the short term Gold may be entering in an "stagflation" period until summer will come and all hell break loose.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
