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what could've been a good trade failed. Image below describes how it happened.
# stage 1
EU had 40 pip run-up followed by 40 pip fall, which led to this
hypothesis:
- EU will fall off
- 40 pip green followed by 40 pip red -> a reversal pattern
- we could see reverse on 1D
trade:
- EU 5mio short, SL 40 -> 20% risk
=> expected EU fall out, went all in max size translating to 20% risk (braking rule of sane risk management, aka SRM)
# stage 2
- after 20 pip MFE
- and 10 pip retracement on 1H candle
- worry appears
- re-thinking expectation of EU falling off
- considering scaling out to 2:1 leveraged size
=> did not act (no clues why???)
# stage 3
- EU falling off hypothesis seemed to fail at this point
- worry appears
-- let the SL be hit
-- or scratching the trade at a lower loss
- decided to scratch, but wait for a retracement
# stage 4
- missed chance to scratch with 4 pip loss
new thesis: EU heading north (seen it in some analysis ... LOL )
- scratching at 20 pip loss ~ 10% NAV
- going long with 10 pip SL
# stage 5
- stop loss being hit
- not willing to go in again and get burned
- sending an order EU LONG STOP @ 1.3940
# stage 6
- EU falling 90 pip after Yellen speech
- STOP order could not trigger
- original trade could have had ~ 90 pip MFE
- feeling pitty
- option to get SL being hit appears to be the better one in this case
- feeling anger
-- thinking of going long with a tight SL (expecting a retracement, ~20 pip MFE)
-- opening SHORT instead with 1.39 SL
==> such an anarchistic approach can ruin NAV with 45% DD
# stage 1
EU had 40 pip run-up followed by 40 pip fall, which led to this
hypothesis:
- EU will fall off
- 40 pip green followed by 40 pip red -> a reversal pattern
- we could see reverse on 1D
trade:
- EU 5mio short, SL 40 -> 20% risk
=> expected EU fall out, went all in max size translating to 20% risk (braking rule of sane risk management, aka SRM)
# stage 2
- after 20 pip MFE
- and 10 pip retracement on 1H candle
- worry appears
- re-thinking expectation of EU falling off
- considering scaling out to 2:1 leveraged size
=> did not act (no clues why???)
# stage 3
- EU falling off hypothesis seemed to fail at this point
- worry appears
-- let the SL be hit
-- or scratching the trade at a lower loss
- decided to scratch, but wait for a retracement
# stage 4
- missed chance to scratch with 4 pip loss
new thesis: EU heading north (seen it in some analysis ... LOL )
- scratching at 20 pip loss ~ 10% NAV
- going long with 10 pip SL
# stage 5
- stop loss being hit
- not willing to go in again and get burned
- sending an order EU LONG STOP @ 1.3940
# stage 6
- EU falling 90 pip after Yellen speech
- STOP order could not trigger
- original trade could have had ~ 90 pip MFE
- feeling pitty
- option to get SL being hit appears to be the better one in this case
- feeling anger
-- thinking of going long with a tight SL (expecting a retracement, ~20 pip MFE)
-- opening SHORT instead with 1.39 SL
==> such an anarchistic approach can ruin NAV with 45% DD
