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I'm going to give out my Fx Market Outlook for this year and I'm going to start with my favorite currency pair: Japanese Yen. It will be a series of blog post because I want to take the time to go through all the major currency pairs and give my personal outlook for 2014.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY bullish trend. In Figure 1 you can see the USD/JPY quarterly chart, and being able to see the bigger picture it gives you another perspective that USD/JPY has not gone up as much as you would have thought, and that it's just the beginning of a multi year bull market.
But at the same time we must look at price action as well so you may ask yourself what's next for USD/JPY as you look on the price action. Yen is already down 17% versus the dollar so far just for this year. In Figure 2 you can see how current price action is following the 1989 USD/JPY fractal. This suggest that we may see a big correction before to continue upwards, but you must be very flexible and let the price guide us. If you don't know what a fractal is don't worry I'm going to cover up this subject by writing an extensive article in the next days.
If you're trading only the forex exchange market don't make the mistake of not watching others market for more clues, like the equity market or the Interest Rates market which are having a big impact on forex exchange fluctuations. The world is much more complex and everything is interconnected so that's the reason why we'll have a look to the Nikkei index which is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, in order to make our analysis on USDJPY. We know that in order for the yen to go down the Nikkei index must go up this will be our confirmation. So basically we must have USDJPY going up and Nikkei Index going up as well. Having confirmation from related market can give you more conviction in your trading ideas.
In Figure 3 you can see how perfect this market are correlated and we can see that at the same time as Nikkei goes up the Japanese Yen is moving very aggressively to the downside.Nikkei index has finishes 2013 with an staggering increase of +56.7%, which is the largest % gain since 1972 (+91.9%).
Just a quick reminder, USD/JPY it may or may not behave as I'm forecasting in my blog post, what is more important is to have a plan and be flexible enough if the market doesn't follow your forecast to abandon your bias and go with the market instead.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY bullish trend. In Figure 1 you can see the USD/JPY quarterly chart, and being able to see the bigger picture it gives you another perspective that USD/JPY has not gone up as much as you would have thought, and that it's just the beginning of a multi year bull market.
- Figure 1. USD/JPY Quarterly chart.
But at the same time we must look at price action as well so you may ask yourself what's next for USD/JPY as you look on the price action. Yen is already down 17% versus the dollar so far just for this year. In Figure 2 you can see how current price action is following the 1989 USD/JPY fractal. This suggest that we may see a big correction before to continue upwards, but you must be very flexible and let the price guide us. If you don't know what a fractal is don't worry I'm going to cover up this subject by writing an extensive article in the next days.
- Figure 2. 1989 USD/JPY fractal guide for today price action.(click to enlarge the picture)
If you're trading only the forex exchange market don't make the mistake of not watching others market for more clues, like the equity market or the Interest Rates market which are having a big impact on forex exchange fluctuations. The world is much more complex and everything is interconnected so that's the reason why we'll have a look to the Nikkei index which is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, in order to make our analysis on USDJPY. We know that in order for the yen to go down the Nikkei index must go up this will be our confirmation. So basically we must have USDJPY going up and Nikkei Index going up as well. Having confirmation from related market can give you more conviction in your trading ideas.
- Figure 3. Nikkei Index daily chart.
In Figure 3 you can see how perfect this market are correlated and we can see that at the same time as Nikkei goes up the Japanese Yen is moving very aggressively to the downside.Nikkei index has finishes 2013 with an staggering increase of +56.7%, which is the largest % gain since 1972 (+91.9%).
Just a quick reminder, USD/JPY it may or may not behave as I'm forecasting in my blog post, what is more important is to have a plan and be flexible enough if the market doesn't follow your forecast to abandon your bias and go with the market instead.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
