Open trading account 
EURUSD made another year high last week and has been moved around 1570 pips this year withouth much retracement, half of this movement has been in the last 2 months. The reason why I think EURUSD might be on a long term retracement its cause of the weekly chart, as you can see on the picture, price went above the 200 weekly moving average last week (green line) but failed to break after NFP on friday and price closed below that 200 weekly moving average. So we not only have a false break, the candle itself suggest rejection. Its too soon to say price will go all the way down, I'm not talking about changing from a clear bullish trend to a bearish, but this signals suggest price could go down, and like I said at the begining, theres lot of room to retrace. For me it would need to go below the 100 weekly moving average (blue line) to talk about a bearish trend on the weekly chart, but doesn't mean I wont try to go short on the dayil, weekly or 5 minutes chart that are the time frames I check. This are the technicals, my main concern as it is on any pair that involves the USD its the bad fundamentals, not only from data related to forex but with all going on in the US.
On the hourly chart you can see price broke the 100 ma (blue line) and then the 200 ma (green) but then it came up. I think the potential move to the downside still in play as long as price doesnt breaks back above the 100 ma. As you can see the 38-61% retracement its below this moving average.
On the hourly chart you can see price broke the 100 ma (blue line) and then the 200 ma (green) but then it came up. I think the potential move to the downside still in play as long as price doesnt breaks back above the 100 ma. As you can see the 38-61% retracement its below this moving average.
