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Funny thing about the next interest rate cut that the money market thinks will happen by October: it's the rate cut that's been six months away for the past nine months, a forecast that just keeps being extended.
The betting is all but unanimous that the Reserve Bank will sit pat tomorrow. Just one of 26 market economists polled by Bloomberg – Morgan Financial – guesses the RBA will trim the cash rate at its first meeting of the year.
However, the number sticking with Governor Stevens' "chill out" phase steadily declines as the year rolls on. By the fourth quarter, only 11 of the 26 think the cash rate will still be 2 per cent while 12 think it will be lower and three are saying higher. What this means is the economics profession, like the RBA itself, doesn't yet know what rates will be by year's end.
source:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-rba-cut-were-still-waiting-for-20160201-gmiiba.html
The betting is all but unanimous that the Reserve Bank will sit pat tomorrow. Just one of 26 market economists polled by Bloomberg – Morgan Financial – guesses the RBA will trim the cash rate at its first meeting of the year.
However, the number sticking with Governor Stevens' "chill out" phase steadily declines as the year rolls on. By the fourth quarter, only 11 of the 26 think the cash rate will still be 2 per cent while 12 think it will be lower and three are saying higher. What this means is the economics profession, like the RBA itself, doesn't yet know what rates will be by year's end.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-rba-cut-were-still-waiting-for-20160201-gmiiba.html
