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The euro closed the weekly session at 1.1469 against the US dollar. The upper daily Bollinger band rests at 1.1567 and ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, a rise above the 1.15 psychological level would likely improve the outlook towards testing the former mentioned level. On the downside, the 1.1345 level, where the actual 20-day SMA is located at, offers support and it might be reached if the ECB reiterate that inflation is still not on a sustainable track.
The sterling pound rose against the US dollar and managed to end the weekly session knocking at the 1.31 level door. The breakout occurred this time after piercing twice this year the 1.3055 level, which is also reinforced by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s drop from the 1.50 level. The upper daily Bollinger band rest at 1.3144, while on the downside support is being formed at 1.2880 where both the 55 and 20-day SMAs are located at.
The yen rose against the US dollar and ended a four-week streak of gains. The US dollar tested the upper daily Bollinger band, which is now located at 114.39. Though, it has reversed polarity and the exchange rate closed the weekly session slightly below the 20-day SMA (112.68) at 112.52. On the downside, support formed by both the 55 and 100-day SMAs at a level around 111.80 seems likely to be tested next week, if the yen can outperform the US dollar for another week.
The yen reached an intra-year high against the euro last week somewhere closer to the 131 level, which was visited for the last time in January 2016. The exchange rate closed the session nearly 200 pips below the high, more precisely at 129.06. After several weeks of congestion on the upside, with the exchange rate retesting successively the upper daily Bollinger band, a correction occurred. The upper daily Bollinger band rests at 131.92 and on the downside the 127.80 reinforced by the 20-day SMA seems likely to be visited next week, if the ECB downplays recent price action.
The aussie outperformed the US dollar last week. The breakout of the trendline that connects the highs of 2016 and 2017 occurred on Friday fueled by weaker than expected US fundamentals, such as retail sales and CPI for June. The exchange rate broke the 0.7720/50 level and managed to close the session 30 pips above the upper daily Bollinger band (0.7797) at 0.7827. On the downside, the first rationale level is offered by the 20-day SMA at 0.7638. The daily RSI at 75.5 looks overstretched and it is likely to move lower next week as well as the exchange rate.
The BoC raised interest rates as widely expected by 25 bp on July 12 meeting. The loonie gained territory against the US dollar once again and in the previous 9 weeks it has risen against the US dollar in 6, with the latest 3 weeks accounting with consecutive US dollar’s losses against the loonie. The RSI looks overstretched on the downside at 21.4. The session close at 1.2646 nearly at the lower daily Bollinger band reinforces the stance that a correction seems likely next week. Though, the first rationale level seen in the daily chart is a bit far from recent price action, at 1.2992 reinforced by the 20-day SMA.
The kiwi managed to rise against the US dollar last week. And despite early losses in the session that prompted the exchange rate to visit the lower daily Bollinger band, the exchange rate finished the week closer to the other Bollinger band boundary (0.7351) at 0.7345. The kiwi outperformed the US dollar, though without skyrocketing as the aussie. On one side, the aussie rose more than expected, on the other the kiwi rose with more cautiousness, but with support given by the 20-day SMA at 0.7283, losses for the kiwi might be minor than aussie’s losses next week.
The sterling pound rose against the US dollar and managed to end the weekly session knocking at the 1.31 level door. The breakout occurred this time after piercing twice this year the 1.3055 level, which is also reinforced by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s drop from the 1.50 level. The upper daily Bollinger band rest at 1.3144, while on the downside support is being formed at 1.2880 where both the 55 and 20-day SMAs are located at.
The yen rose against the US dollar and ended a four-week streak of gains. The US dollar tested the upper daily Bollinger band, which is now located at 114.39. Though, it has reversed polarity and the exchange rate closed the weekly session slightly below the 20-day SMA (112.68) at 112.52. On the downside, support formed by both the 55 and 100-day SMAs at a level around 111.80 seems likely to be tested next week, if the yen can outperform the US dollar for another week.
The yen reached an intra-year high against the euro last week somewhere closer to the 131 level, which was visited for the last time in January 2016. The exchange rate closed the session nearly 200 pips below the high, more precisely at 129.06. After several weeks of congestion on the upside, with the exchange rate retesting successively the upper daily Bollinger band, a correction occurred. The upper daily Bollinger band rests at 131.92 and on the downside the 127.80 reinforced by the 20-day SMA seems likely to be visited next week, if the ECB downplays recent price action.
The aussie outperformed the US dollar last week. The breakout of the trendline that connects the highs of 2016 and 2017 occurred on Friday fueled by weaker than expected US fundamentals, such as retail sales and CPI for June. The exchange rate broke the 0.7720/50 level and managed to close the session 30 pips above the upper daily Bollinger band (0.7797) at 0.7827. On the downside, the first rationale level is offered by the 20-day SMA at 0.7638. The daily RSI at 75.5 looks overstretched and it is likely to move lower next week as well as the exchange rate.
The BoC raised interest rates as widely expected by 25 bp on July 12 meeting. The loonie gained territory against the US dollar once again and in the previous 9 weeks it has risen against the US dollar in 6, with the latest 3 weeks accounting with consecutive US dollar’s losses against the loonie. The RSI looks overstretched on the downside at 21.4. The session close at 1.2646 nearly at the lower daily Bollinger band reinforces the stance that a correction seems likely next week. Though, the first rationale level seen in the daily chart is a bit far from recent price action, at 1.2992 reinforced by the 20-day SMA.
The kiwi managed to rise against the US dollar last week. And despite early losses in the session that prompted the exchange rate to visit the lower daily Bollinger band, the exchange rate finished the week closer to the other Bollinger band boundary (0.7351) at 0.7345. The kiwi outperformed the US dollar, though without skyrocketing as the aussie. On one side, the aussie rose more than expected, on the other the kiwi rose with more cautiousness, but with support given by the 20-day SMA at 0.7283, losses for the kiwi might be minor than aussie’s losses next week.
