Headline inflation has gone up and, if core follows, there will be little excuse for the ECB to stick with the easiest policy on record. Political uncertainty in the U.S. has overshadowed political risks in Europe. That makes the current correction deeper than expected by many.

Since bottoming at 1.0350 at the start of the year, the pair has risen nearly five cents. 100 DMA is immediate resistance before the long-term trendline zone, reinforced by 200 DMA, near 1.10. 50 DMA is the first stronger support.

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