Dollar gains were reversed in a sudden, violent sell-off yesterday, but honestly the reasons are not clear to me. Some analysts mentioned that it was the negative comments Yellen made on economy and the treasury yields falling. But what I see in the last 48 hours is a steady chance increase of Fed hike in March, now being at about 50%. Another Fed official said yesterday that we might need more than 3 hikes in 2017. And let's not forget CPI that rocked!

So, why the markets are not rushing to start pricing in Fed March move? I'm not sure. Today we might get some more clarity as two other Feds are to speak, including vice chair Stanley Fischer.

My yen long trades opened yesterday did not materialize much profit but I didn't lose on them. After a the dollar sell off yesterday I opened 5 new trades, all dollar long. My reasoning is: what else is there? I have no reason to believe that US dollar will depreciate more in the next few days. Perhaps I rushed to open them a bit too early and I could have waited till this morning for better entries, but, oh well, we'll see what happens. With the exception of yen crosses I trade only majors lately. That's because even among major pairs the volatility is high enough for my stomach and we get plenty of sessions with moves exceeding 100 pips.
翻译为 英语 显示原始